AP Statistics 2.10 The Binomial Distribution- Exam Style Questions - FRQs - New Syllabus
Question
ii. Suppose two songs are selected at random to be played. What is the probability that both songs are rock songs? Show your work.
ii. What is the expected value for the random variable in part B (i)? Show your work.
ii. Suppose 4 rock songs are played during a particular one-hour period. Does this provide strong evidence that the song selection process was not truly random? Justify your answer without performing an inference procedure.
Most-appropriate topic codes (AP Statistics):
• Topic \(2.7\) — Independent Events and Unions of Events (Part \( \mathrm{A} \))
• Topic \(2.10\) — The Binomial Distribution (Parts \( \mathrm{B} \), \( \mathrm{C} \))
▶️ Answer/Explanation
A. i.
Let \(R\) represent selecting a rock song.
\(P(R) = \dfrac{\text{Number of rock songs}}{\text{Total number of songs}} = \dfrac{100}{1,000}\)
\(\boxed{P(R) = 0.10}\)
A. ii.
Because any song can be repeated, the selection of the second song is independent of the first.
\(P(\text{Both Rock}) = P(R) \times P(R) = 0.10 \times 0.10\)
\(\boxed{P(\text{Both Rock}) = 0.01}\)
B. i.
• Let \(X\) be the random variable representing the number of rock songs played in a one-hour period.
• The random variable \(X\) follows a binomial distribution, expressed as \(X \sim \text{Binomial}(n = 20, p = 0.10)\).
B. ii.
The expected value of a binomial distribution is given by the formula \(E(X) = n \cdot p\).
\(E(X) = 20 \times 0.10\)
\(\boxed{E(X) = 2\text{ songs}}\)
C. i.
We want to calculate \(P(X \ge 4) = 1 – P(X \le 3)\).
Using the binomial cumulative distribution formula, \(P(X \le 3) = \sum_{k=0}^{3} \binom{20}{k} (0.10)^k (0.90)^{20-k} \approx 0.8670\).
\(P(X \ge 4) = 1 – 0.8670\)
\(\boxed{P(X \ge 4) = 0.1330}\)
C. ii.
• No, this does not provide strong evidence that the song selection process was not truly random.
• The calculated probability of playing 4 or more rock songs is \(0.1330\), which is greater than conventional significance thresholds like \(\alpha = 0.05\), meaning an outcome of 4 rock songs is a relatively common chance occurrence.
Question
(ii) Determine the probability that a crate will be rejected by the warehouse manager. Show your work.
Most-appropriate topic codes (AP Statistics):
• Topic \(2.11\) — The Normal Distribution (Parts \( \mathrm{a} \), \( \mathrm{c} \))
▶️ Answer/Explanation
(a)
Let $A$ be the amount of shampoo in a bottle. We need to find $P(A < 0.50)$.
$z = \frac{0.50 – 0.60}{0.04} = -2.5$
$P(A < 0.50) = P(Z < -2.5) = 0.0062$
(b)(i)
Let $X$ represent the number of underfilled bottles in a randomly selected box of 10 bottles. Because each bottle’s volume is independent and has the same probability of being underfilled, the random variable $X$ has a binomial distribution with $n = 10$ trials and probability of success $p = 0.0062$.
(b)(ii)
The probability that a crate will be rejected is the probability of finding 2 or more underfilled bottles in a box: $P(X \ge 2)$.
$P(X \ge 2) = 1 – P(X \le 1) = 1 – [P(X = 0) + P(X = 1)]$
$P(X \ge 2) = 1 – \left[\binom{10}{0}(0.0062)^0(0.9938)^{10} + \binom{10}{1}(0.0062)^1(0.9938)^9\right]$
$P(X \ge 2) \approx 1 – [0.9397 + 0.0586] \approx 1 – 0.9983 = 0.0017$
(c)
Under the adjusted programming, the new mean is $0.56$ and the standard deviation is $0.03$. The new probability of a bottle being underfilled is:
$z = \frac{0.50 – 0.56}{0.03} = -2.0$
$P(Z < -2.0) \approx 0.02275$
Because the probability of an underfilled bottle is much greater for the adjusted programming ($0.0228$) than for the original programming ($0.0062$), the manufacturing company should keep the original programming. Using the adjusted settings would actually result in more underfilled bottles, thereby increasing the number of rejected crates.
Question
ii. Determine the probability that a particular employee receives at least one gift card in a \(52\)-week year. Show your work.
Most-appropriate topic codes (AP Statistics):
▶️ Answer/Explanation
(a)(i)
Let \(X\) be the number of gift cards a specific employee receives in a \(52\)-week year.
Since the probability of winning is constant (\(p = \frac{1}{200} = 0.005\)) and the weekly drawings are independent, \(X\) follows a binomial distribution with \(n = 52\) trials and probability of success \(p = 0.005\).
(a)(ii)
To find the probability of winning at least once, it’s easiest to use the complement rule (1 minus the probability of winning zero times):
\( P(X \ge 1) = 1 – P(X = 0) \)
\( P(X \ge 1) = 1 – \binom{52}{0}(0.005)^0(0.995)^{52} \)
\( P(X \ge 1) = 1 – 0.7705 \)
\( P(X \ge 1) = 0.2295 \)
(b)
The expected value (mean) for a binomial distribution is calculated as \(\mu = np\).
\( E(X) = 52 \times 0.005 = 0.26 \)
This means that if we repeat this \(52\)-week selection process for many, many years, a specific employee will receive an average of about \(0.26\) gift cards per year (or roughly one card every four years).
(c)
No, Agatha does not have a strong argument.
As we found in the earlier calculations, the probability of getting zero gift cards in a year is \(P(X = 0) \approx 0.7705\).
Because there is roughly a \(77\%\) chance of walking away empty-handed in a perfectly fair system, her experience of not winning is highly likely and completely consistent with a truly random process.
Question

Most-appropriate topic codes (AP Statistics):
• Topic \(2.7\) — Independent Events and Mutually Exclusive Events (Part \( \mathrm{b} \))
• Topic \(2.10\) — The Binomial Distribution (Part \( \mathrm{c} \))
▶️ Answer/Explanation
(a)(i)
From the given two-way table, we can find the joint probability directly by looking at the intersection of the “Women” row and “Never” column.
\(P(\text{never and woman}) = 0.0636\)
(a)(ii)
To find this probability, we use the general addition rule by adding the marginal probability of “never” to the marginal probability of “woman”, and subtracting their intersection.
\(P(\text{never or woman}) = P(\text{never}) + P(\text{woman}) – P(\text{never and woman})\)
\(P(\text{never or woman}) = 0.1200 + 0.5300 – 0.0636 = 0.5864\)
(a)(iii)
For conditional probability, we divide the joint probability of both events occurring by the marginal probability of the given condition (“woman”).
\(P(\text{never} \mid \text{woman}) = \dfrac{P(\text{never and woman})}{P(\text{woman})}\)
\(P(\text{never} \mid \text{woman}) = \dfrac{0.0636}{0.5300} = 0.12\)
(b)
We can check for independence by seeing if the conditional probability of an event equals its marginal probability.
Since \(P(\text{never} \mid \text{woman}) = 0.12\) and the overall probability \(P(\text{never}) = 0.12\), the probabilities are identical.
Yes, this indicates that the event of responding “never” is perfectly independent of the event of being a “woman”.
(c)
This scenario can be modeled using a binomial distribution with \(n=5\) trials and a success probability of \(p=0.54\).
We need to find the probability of getting at least \(4\) successes, which means finding the sum of \(P(X=4)\) and \(P(X=5)\).
\(P(X \ge 4) = \binom{5}{4}(0.54)^4(0.46)^1 + \binom{5}{5}(0.54)^5(0.46)^0\)
\(P(X \ge 4) \approx 0.19557 + 0.04592 \approx 0.24149\)
Question
Most-appropriate topic codes (AP Statistics):
• Topic \(2.7\) — Independent Events and Mutually Exclusive Events (Parts \( \mathrm{a} \), \( \mathrm{b} \))
• Topic \(2.10\) — The Binomial Distribution (Part \( \mathrm{c} \))
▶️ Answer/Explanation
(a)
Let \(L\) denote the event that a child is left-handed, \(M\) denote the event of a multiple birth, and \(S\) denote the event of a single birth.
We are given: \(P(M) = 0.035\), \(P(S) = 0.965\), \(P(L \mid M) = 0.22\), and \(P(L \mid S) = 0.11\).
Apply the Law of Total Probability:
\(P(L) = P(M) \cdot P(L \mid M) + P(S) \cdot P(L \mid S)\)
\(P(L) = (0.035)(0.22) + (0.965)(0.11)\)
\(P(L) = 0.0077 + 0.10615\)
\(\boxed{P(L) = 0.11385}\)
Think of this as a weighted average of the two left-handedness rates — you weight each group’s rate by how large that group is. Since single births make up the overwhelming majority (96.5%), they drive the overall rate, which lands very close to 11%. The small multiple-birth group nudges it up just slightly to about 11.4%.
(b)
We use the definition of conditional probability to find \(P(M \mid L)\).
\(P(M \mid L) = \dfrac{P(M \cap L)}{P(L)}\)
The joint probability \(P(M \cap L)\) is found using the multiplication rule:
\(P(M \cap L) = P(M) \cdot P(L \mid M) = (0.035)(0.22) = 0.0077\)
Using \(P(L) = 0.11385\) from part (a):
\(P(M \mid L) = \dfrac{0.0077}{0.11385}\)
\(\boxed{P(M \mid L) \approx 0.0676}\)
This is a classic Bayes-style reversal — we flipped from “given multiple birth, what’s the chance of being left-handed?” to “given left-handed, what’s the chance of multiple birth?” Even though multiple-birth children are twice as likely to be left-handed (22% vs. 11%), they are so rare (only 3.5% of all births) that among all left-handed children, only about 6.8% actually come from multiple births. Rarity wins.
(c)
Let \(X\) represent the number of left-handed children in a random sample of \(20\). Since each child is selected independently with the same probability of being left-handed, \(X\) follows a binomial distribution:
\(X \sim \operatorname{Binomial}(n = 20,\; p = 0.11385)\)
We want \(P(X \geq 3)\). Using the complement:
\(P(X \geq 3) = 1 – P(X \leq 2) = 1 – \bigl[P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2)\bigr]\)
Using the binomial formula \(\displaystyle P(X = k) = \binom{20}{k}(0.11385)^{k}(0.88615)^{20-k}\):
\(P(X = 0) = \dbinom{20}{0}(0.11385)^{0}(0.88615)^{20} \approx 0.0891\)
\(P(X = 1) = \dbinom{20}{1}(0.11385)^{1}(0.88615)^{19} \approx 0.2289\)
\(P(X = 2) = \dbinom{20}{2}(0.11385)^{2}(0.88615)^{18} \approx 0.2797\)
Summing the complement terms:
\(P(X \leq 2) \approx 0.0891 + 0.2289 + 0.2797 = 0.5977\)
\(P(X \geq 3) = 1 – 0.5977\)
\(\boxed{P(X \geq 3) \approx 0.402}\)
The complement trick is your best friend here — instead of adding up \(P(X=3) + P(X=4) + \cdots + P(X=20)\), which would take forever, you subtract the small pile of easy cases (0, 1, or 2 left-handed kids) from 1. With only about an 11.4% chance per child, there’s roughly a 40% chance that 3 or more kids in a group of 20 will be left-handed — higher than you might expect, because “at least 3” covers most of the distribution.
Question
Most-appropriate topic codes (AP Statistics):
• Topic 2.10 — The Binomial Distribution (Part a)
• Topic 2.7 — Independent Events and Unions of Events (Part a)
▶️ Answer/Explanation
(a)
Let \(Y\) denote the number of flights Sam must make until he receives his first upgrade. The random variable \(Y\) follows a geometric distribution with \(p = 0.1\).
The probability that Sam’s upgrade will occur after his third flight is equivalent to the probability that he receives no upgrade on his first three flights.
\(P(Y \ge 4) = 1 – P(Y \le 3)\)
\(= 1 – [P(Y=1) + P(Y=2) + P(Y=3)]\)
\(= 1 – [0.1 + 0.9(0.1) + (0.9)^2(0.1)]\)
\(= 1 – [0.1 + 0.09 + 0.081]\)
\(= 0.729\)
\(\boxed{0.729}\)
(b)
Let \(X\) denote the number of upgrades Sam will receive in \(20\) flights. The random variable \(X\) follows a binomial distribution with \(n = 20\) independent trials and \(p = 0.1\).
The probability that Sam will be upgraded exactly \(2\) times is calculated as follows:
\(P(X = 2) = \binom{20}{2}(0.1)^2(0.9)^{18}\)
\(\approx 0.2852\)
\(\boxed{P(X = 2) \approx 0.2852}\)
(c)
Let \(X\) denote the number of upgrades Sam will receive in \(104\) flights. The random variable \(X\) follows a binomial distribution with \(n = 104\) independent trials and \(p = 0.1\).
We need to find the probability of receiving more than \(20\) upgrades:
\(P(X > 20) = 1 – P(X \le 20)\)
\(\approx 1 – 0.9986\)
\(\approx 0.0014\)
Because this probability is so small (less than \(1\%\)), it is very unlikely that Sam would receive more than \(20\) upgrades in \(104\) flights if the airline’s claim is correct. This would be expected to happen less than \(1\) percent of the time.
Therefore, I would be surprised if Sam receives more than \(20\) upgrades during the year.
Question

Most-appropriate topic codes (AP Statistics):
• Topic 2.10 — The Binomial Distribution (Parts a, b)
• Topic 1.11 — Random Sampling (Part c)
▶️ Answer/Explanation
(a)
Because the total population ($297,354$) is overwhelmingly large compared to the sample size ($2,000$), we can treat this as a binomial distribution even though sampling is without replacement.
The probability of selecting a model E owner is $p = \dfrac{2,323}{297,354} \approx 0.007812$.
The sample size is $n = 2000$.
Expected number (Mean):
$\mu_E = n \times p = 2000 \times 0.007812 \approx 15.62$ owners
Standard Deviation:
$\sigma_E = \sqrt{n \times p \times (1-p)} = \sqrt{2000 \times 0.007812 \times (1 – 0.007812)} = \sqrt{15.49} \approx 3.93$ owners
(b)
For the reason given in part (a), the binomial distribution with $n = 2,000$ and $p \approx 0.0078$ can be used here. The probability that the sample would contain fewer than 12 owners of model E is calculated from the binomial distribution to be $\sum_{x=0}^{11} \binom{2,000}{x} (0.0078)^x (0.9922)^{2,000-x} \approx 0.147$. This probability is small enough that the result (fewer than 12 owners of model E in the sample) is not likely, but this probability is also not small enough to consider the result very unlikely.
This binomial probability can also be evaluated using a normal approximation. This is reasonable because $n \times p = (2,000) \times (0.0078) = 15.6$ is larger than 10 and $n(1 – p) = (2,000) \times (0.9922) = 1,984.4$ is much larger than 10. Using the mean and standard deviation from part (a) gives
$P(X \le 11) \approx P\left( Z < \dfrac{12.0 – 15.62}{3.94} \right) = P(Z < -0.92) = 0.179$.
(c)
To guarantee at least 12 owners from each model, the company should use a stratified random sampling method.
The researcher should use the five car models as the strata.
They can determine how many individuals they want to sample from each model (stratum) as long as every model’s assigned sample size is $12$ or greater, and all five sizes add up to exactly $2,000$.
Then, they simply perform five separate simple random samples—one within each specific car model’s list of owners—to achieve the decided quota for that model.
Question
Most-appropriate topic codes (AP Statistics):
• Topic \(2.9\) — Parameters of Random Variables (Part \(\mathrm{b}\))
▶️ Answer/Explanation
(a)
Since each question has 5 answer choices and only 1 is correct, the probability of guessing correctly on any single question is
\(p = \frac{1}{5} = 0.20\)
Each question is independent, and there are a fixed number of trials (\(n = 25\)), so \(X\) follows a binomial distribution with parameters \(n = 25\) and \(p = 0.20\):
\(X \sim B(25,\ 0.20)\)
The probability mass function is:
\(P(X = k) = \binom{25}{k}(0.20)^k(0.80)^{25-k}, \quad k = 0, 1, 2, \ldots, 25\)
Think of it this way: every question is either right or wrong (two outcomes), the questions don’t affect each other (independence), there are exactly 25 of them (fixed \(n\)), and each one has the same \(\frac{1}{5}\) chance of being correct — that’s the classic checklist for a binomial setup.
(b)
Let \(Y\) be the number of correct guesses among the 7 randomly answered questions. Then
\(Y \sim B(7,\ 0.20)\)
The expected number of correct guesses is:
\(E(Y) = np = 7 \times 0.20 = 1.4\)
Since the student answers 7 questions randomly and gets \(Y\) correct, the number answered incorrectly is \(7 – Y\). The scoring formula gives:
\(\text{Score} = (18 + Y) \times 1 – (7 – Y) \times 0.25 + 0\)
\(\text{Score} = 18 + Y – 1.75 + 0.25Y = 16.25 + 1.25Y\)
Taking the expected value:
\(E(\text{Score}) = E(16.25 + 1.25Y) = 16.25 + 1.25 \cdot E(Y)\)
\(E(\text{Score}) = 16.25 + 1.25 \times 1.4 = 16.25 + 1.75 = \boxed{18}\)
The key insight here is that even though the student is guessing on 7 questions, the penalty for wrong answers exactly offsets the expected gain from lucky correct guesses — the expected score ends up right back at 18, the number the student knew for certain.
(c)
The student passes when \(\text{Score} \geq 20\). Using the expression from part (b):
\(16.25 + 1.25Y \geq 20\)
\(1.25Y \geq 3.75\)
\(Y \geq 3\)
So the student needs to guess at least 3 of the 7 random questions correctly in order to pass. It’s easier to use the complement:
\(P(Y \geq 3) = 1 – P(Y \leq 2)\)
\(P(Y \leq 2) = P(Y=0) + P(Y=1) + P(Y=2)\)
\(= \binom{7}{0}(0.2)^0(0.8)^7 + \binom{7}{1}(0.2)^1(0.8)^6 + \binom{7}{2}(0.2)^2(0.8)^5\)
\(= (0.8)^7 + 7(0.2)(0.8)^6 + 21(0.04)(0.8)^5\)
\(= 0.2097 + 0.3670 + 0.2753\)
\(= 0.8520\)
Therefore:
\(P(Y \geq 3) = 1 – 0.8520 = \boxed{0.148}\)
There’s only about a 14.8% chance the student passes — which makes sense intuitively. Even though the expected score is exactly 18, passing requires being luckier than average on those 7 guesses, and the binomial distribution tells us that’s a relatively rare outcome.
Question
Most-appropriate topic codes (AP Statistics):
• Topic \(2.10\) — The Binomial Distribution (Part \(\mathrm{b}\))
• Topic \(2.12\) — Sampling Distributions and the Central Limit Theorem (Part \(\mathrm{c}\))
▶️ Answer/Explanation
(a)
Let \(X\) denote the stopping distance. We are told that \(X\) is normally distributed with
\( \mu_X = 125 \text{ ft}, \qquad \sigma_X = 6.5 \text{ ft} \)
We want the value \(x\) such that \(P(X \leq x) = 0.70\).
From the standard normal table, the \(z\)-score with a cumulative probability of \(0.70\) is
\( z = 0.52 \)
Using the \(z\)-score formula and solving for \(x\):
\( z = \dfrac{x – \mu}{\sigma} \implies x = \mu + z\sigma \)
\( x = 125 + 0.52(6.5) = 125 + 3.38 \)
\( \boxed{x \approx 128.4 \text{ feet}} \)
So the 70th percentile of the stopping distance distribution is approximately \(128.4\) feet — meaning \(70\%\) of cars stop within this distance.
(b)
From part (a), a stopping distance greater than \(128.4\) feet corresponds to the top \(30\%\) of the distribution:
\( p = P(X > 128.4) = 1 – 0.70 = 0.30 \)
Let \(Y\) = number of cars (out of 5) that stop in a distance greater than \(128.4\) feet. Since each car is independent and the probability of “success” is the same for each, \(Y\) follows a binomial distribution:
\( Y \sim B(n=5,\ p=0.30) \)
We need \(P(Y \geq 2)\). It is easier to use the complement:
\( P(Y \geq 2) = 1 – P(Y \leq 1) = 1 – \bigl[P(Y=0) + P(Y=1)\bigr] \)
\( P(Y=0) = \binom{5}{0}(0.30)^0(0.70)^5 = 1 \cdot 1 \cdot 0.16807 = 0.16807 \)
\( P(Y=1) = \binom{5}{1}(0.30)^1(0.70)^4 = 5 \cdot 0.30 \cdot 0.2401 = 0.36015 \)
\( P(Y \leq 1) = 0.16807 + 0.36015 = 0.52822 \)
\( P(Y \geq 2) = 1 – 0.52822 \)
\( \boxed{P(Y \geq 2) \approx 0.4718} \)
There is roughly a \(47.18\%\) chance that at least 2 of the 5 randomly selected cars will stop beyond \(128.4\) feet — think of it as just under a coin-flip, which makes intuitive sense since each car has a \(30\%\) chance on its own.
(c)
Let \(\bar{X}\) denote the mean stopping distance of a random sample of \(n = 5\) cars. Because the individual stopping distances are normally distributed, the sampling distribution of \(\bar{X}\) is also exactly normal with:
\( \mu_{\bar{X}} = \mu = 125 \text{ ft} \)
\( \sigma_{\bar{X}} = \dfrac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}} = \dfrac{6.5}{\sqrt{5}} \approx 2.907 \text{ ft} \)
We want \(P(\bar{X} \geq 130)\). Convert to a \(z\)-score:
\( z = \dfrac{130 – 125}{6.5/\sqrt{5}} = \dfrac{5}{2.907} \approx 1.72 \)
\( P(\bar{X} \geq 130) = P(Z \geq 1.72) = 1 – P(Z < 1.72) \)
\( P(Z < 1.72) \approx 0.9573 \)
\( P(\bar{X} \geq 130) = 1 – 0.9573 \)
\( \boxed{P(\bar{X} \geq 130) \approx 0.0427} \)
There is only about a \(4.27\%\) chance that the average stopping distance for 5 randomly selected cars exceeds 130 feet — this is much smaller than the \(30\%\) chance for any single car, because averaging over 5 cars reduces variability considerably and makes extreme means much less likely.
Question

Most-appropriate topic codes (AP Statistics):
• Topic 2.10 — The Binomial Distribution (Part \(\mathrm{b}\))
• Topic 2.8 — Introduction to Random Variables and Probability Distributions (Parts \(\mathrm{a}\), \(\mathrm{b}\))
• Topic 2.12 — Sampling Distributions and the Central Limit Theorem (Part \(\mathrm{c}\))
• Topic 4.1 — Sampling Distributions for Sample Means (Part \(\mathrm{c}\))
▶️ Answer/Explanation
(a)
A household is in violation if it owns more than \(3\) pets, i.e., \(X > 3\). Read the relative frequencies for \(X = 4, 5, 6, 7\) directly from the graph and add them up.
\(P(X > 3) = P(X=4) + P(X=5) + P(X=6) + P(X=7)\)
\(P(X > 3) = 0.07 + 0.04 + 0.04 + 0.02\)
\(\boxed{P(X > 3) = 0.17}\)
(b)
Let \(Y\) = the number of households in violation among the \(10\) selected. Since each household is independently either in violation or not, \(Y\) follows a binomial distribution with \(n = 10\) and \(p = 0.17\) (from part (a)).
Using the binomial probability formula \(P(Y = k) = \dbinom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k}\):
\(P(Y = 2) = \binom{10}{2}(0.17)^2(0.83)^8\)
\(P(Y = 2) = 45 \times (0.0289) \times (0.2252)\)
\(\boxed{P(Y = 2) \approx 0.2929}\)
(c)
Because the sample size \(n = 150\) is large, the Central Limit Theorem tells us the sampling distribution of \(\bar{X}\) will be approximately normal, regardless of the shape of the original population distribution.
The mean of the sampling distribution equals the population mean:
\(\mu_{\bar{X}} = \mu = 1.65\)
The standard deviation (standard error) of the sampling distribution is:
\(\sigma_{\bar{X}} = \dfrac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}} = \dfrac{1.851}{\sqrt{150}} \approx 0.1511\)
So the sampling distribution of \(\bar{X}\) is approximately \(N(1.65,\ 0.1511)\) — normal, centered at \(1.65\), with a standard deviation of about \(0.1511\).
Question
Most-appropriate topic codes (AP Statistics):
• Topic 2.10 — The Binomial Distribution (Part \(\mathrm{b}\))
• Topic 2.7 — Independent Events and Unions of Events (Part \(\mathrm{b}\))
▶️ Answer/Explanation
(a)
Let \(D\) represent the distance a randomly selected ball travels. We are given that \(D\) is normally distributed with mean \(\mu = 288\) yards and standard deviation \(\sigma = 2.8\) yards.
A ball travels “too far” if it exceeds 291.2 yards, so we need:
\(P(D > 291.2)\)
Converting to a \(z\)-score:
\(z = \frac{291.2 – 288}{2.8} = \frac{3.2}{2.8} = 1.14\)
\(P(D > 291.2) = P(Z > 1.14) = 1 – P(Z \leq 1.14) = 1 – 0.8729 = 0.1271\)
\(\boxed{P(D > 291.2) \approx 0.1271}\)
(b)
Since five balls are independently tested and the probability that any one ball exceeds 291.2 yards is \(p = 0.1271\) (from part a), the number of balls exceeding the limit follows a binomial distribution with \(n = 5\) and \(p = 0.1271\).
Using the complement rule:
\(P(\text{at least one} > 291.2) = 1 – P(\text{none} > 291.2)\)
\(= 1 – P(\text{all five} \leq 291.2)\)
\(= 1 – (1 – 0.1271)^5\)
\(= 1 – (0.8729)^5\)
\(= 1 – 0.5068\)
\(= 0.4932\)
\(\boxed{P(\text{at least one ball exceeds 291.2 yards}) \approx 0.4932}\)
(c)
We want the manufacturer to be 99 percent certain that a randomly selected ball will not exceed 291.2 yards, meaning:
\(P(D \leq 291.2) = 0.99\)
The 99th percentile of the standard normal distribution corresponds to \(z^* = 2.33\).
Setting up the equation with the unknown mean \(\mu\):
\(\frac{291.2 – \mu}{2.8} = 2.33\)
Solving for \(\mu\):
\(291.2 – \mu = 2.33 \times 2.8 = 6.524\)
\(\mu = 291.2 – 6.524 = 284.676\)
\(\boxed{\mu = 284.676 \text{ yards}}\)
In order to be 99 percent certain that a randomly selected ball will not exceed the maximum distance of 291.2 yards, the largest mean that can be used in the manufacturing process is 284.676 yards.
Question


Most-appropriate topic codes (AP Statistics):
• Topic 3.2 — Sampling Distributions for Sample Proportions (Part \(\mathrm{b}\))
• Topic 2.10 — The Binomial Distribution (Part \(\mathrm{c}\))
• Topic 3.6 — p-Values (Part \(\mathrm{d}\))
• Topic 3.7 — Carrying Out a Test for a Population Proportion (Part \(\mathrm{e}\))
• Topic 1.13 — Experimental Design (Part \(\mathrm{f}\))
▶️ Answer/Explanation
(a)
Let \(p\) be the population proportion of consumers who prefer Citrus Fresh. The hypotheses are:
\(H_0: p = 0.5\)
\(H_a: p \neq 0.5\)
A two-sided alternative is appropriate because Sunshine Farms wants to detect any difference in preference, not just preference for one particular juice.
(b)
The conditions for a one-proportion \(z\)-test require that both \(np\) and \(n(1-p)\) be at least 5 (or 10). Here:
\(np = 8 \times 0.5 = 4 < 5\)
\(n(1-p) = 8 \times 0.5 = 4 < 5\)
Since both values are less than 5, the large-sample normal approximation is not valid, and using a one-proportion \(z\)-test would not be appropriate for a sample of only \(n = 8\).
(c)
Under \(H_0\), \(X \sim \text{Binomial}(n = 8,\ p = 0.5)\). The probabilities are computed using:
\(P(X = x) = \binom{8}{x}(0.5)^x(0.5)^{8-x} = \binom{8}{x}(0.5)^8\)

(d)
No, it is not possible for the significance level to be exactly 0.05. Because \(X\) is a discrete random variable, the tail probabilities can only take specific values — there is no rejection region that gives a type I error probability of exactly 0.05.
The most extreme rejection region \((X = 0 \text{ or } X = 8)\) gives:
\(\alpha = 2 \times 0.00391 = 0.00782 < 0.05\)
The next possible rejection region \((X \leq 1 \text{ or } X \geq 7)\) gives:
\(\alpha = 2 \times (0.00391 + 0.03125) = 2 \times 0.03516 = 0.07031 > 0.05\)
Since no rejection region produces a type I error probability of exactly 0.05, a significance level of exactly 0.05 is not achievable with this test.
\(\boxed{\alpha = 0.05 \text{ is not achievable — the achievable levels jump from } 0.00782 \text{ to } 0.07031}\)
(e)
From the data, 2 out of 8 consumers preferred Citrus Fresh, so \(X = 2\).
Since this is a two-sided test, the \(p\)-value is the probability of observing a result at least as extreme as \(X = 2\) in either tail:
\(p\text{-value} = P(X \leq 2) + P(X \geq 6)\)
\(= 2 \times [P(X=0) + P(X=1) + P(X=2)]\)
\(= 2 \times (0.00391 + 0.03125 + 0.10937)\)
\(= 2 \times 0.14453 = 0.28906\)
Since the \(p\)-value of \(0.289\) is much larger than any reasonable significance level (e.g., \(\alpha = 0.05\) or \(\alpha = 0.07031\)), we fail to reject \(H_0\). There is not statistically significant evidence of a consumer preference between Citrus Fresh and Tropical Taste.
\(\boxed{p\text{-value} \approx 0.289 \implies \text{Fail to reject } H_0; \text{ no significant consumer preference detected}}\)
(f)
The most important recommendation is to increase the number of consumers in the study. With only \(n = 8\) consumers, the test has very low power — even a large true difference in preference (like 75% vs. 25%) may not produce a statistically significant result. Increasing the sample size would reduce the standard error of the estimated proportion \(\hat{p}\), making it easier to detect a real difference, and would allow the use of the large-sample one-proportion \(z\)-test since \(np \geq 5\) and \(n(1-p) \geq 5\) would be satisfied. For example, with \(n = 80\) and \(X = 20\) (same sample proportion of 0.25), the \(z\)-statistic would be approximately:
\(z = \frac{0.25 – 0.5}{\sqrt{\frac{0.5(0.5)}{80}}} \approx -4.47\)
which gives a \(p\)-value near zero, allowing a clear conclusion to be reached.
\(\boxed{\text{Recommendation: Increase sample size to increase power and enable use of the } z\text{-test}}\)
Question
Most-appropriate topic codes (AP Statistics):
• Topic 2.7 — Independent Events and Unions of Events (Part a,b)
• Topic 2.4 — Introduction to Probability (Part b)
• Topic 2.3 — Estimating Probabilities Using Simulation (Part c)
•Topic 1.12 — Potential Problems with Sampling (Part d)
▶️ Answer/Explanation
(a)
The probability distribution of \(X\) is not binomial because the bones are selected without replacement from a finite population of only 20 femurs. For a binomial distribution to apply, each trial must be independent — that is, the probability of success (selecting a male femur) must remain constant from one draw to the next. However, when sampling without replacement, the composition of the remaining pool changes with each selection, so the probability of drawing a male femur on each successive draw depends on what was drawn before it. Since the trials are not independent and the probability of success is not fixed, the distribution of \(X\) is hypergeometric, not binomial.
\(\boxed{X \text{ is not binomial because sampling is without replacement, making trials dependent}}\)
(b)
With 10 males and 10 females among the 20 brontosaurs, compute the probability that all 4 selected femurs are male using the multiplication rule for dependent events (without replacement):
\(P(\text{1st is male}) = \dfrac{10}{20}\)
\(P(\text{2nd is male} \mid \text{1st is male}) = \dfrac{9}{19}\)
\(P(\text{3rd is male} \mid \text{first two are male}) = \dfrac{8}{18}\)
\(P(\text{4th is male} \mid \text{first three are male}) = \dfrac{7}{17}\)
Therefore:
\(P(\text{all 4 are male}) = \dfrac{10}{20} \times \dfrac{9}{19} \times \dfrac{8}{18} \times \dfrac{7}{17}\)
\(= \dfrac{10 \times 9 \times 8 \times 7}{20 \times 19 \times 18 \times 17} = \dfrac{5040}{116280} \approx 0.0433\)
This can also be expressed using combinations:
\(P(\text{all 4 are male}) = \dfrac{\dbinom{10}{4}}{\dbinom{20}{4}} = \dfrac{210}{4845} \approx 0.0433\)
\(\boxed{P(\text{all 4 male}) \approx 0.0433}\)
(c)
No, it does not seem likely that males and females were equally represented in the group of 20 brontosaurs. From part (b), if the group had exactly 10 males and 10 females, the probability of randomly selecting 4 males in a row is only about \(4.33\%\). Since this probability is quite small (less than 5%), observing all 4 selected femurs being male is an unusual result under the assumption of equal representation. It is therefore more reasonable to think that males outnumbered females in this particular group of brontosaurs trapped in the swamp, though equal representation is possible — just unlikely given the data.
\(\boxed{\text{Equal representation is unlikely; evidence suggests more males than females in the group}}\)
(d)
No, it is not reasonable to generalize the conclusion from part (c) to the entire population of brontosaurs. The 20 brontosaurs found at the site do not constitute a random sample from the population of all brontosaurs — they represent only those individuals that happened to wander into that particular swamp and become trapped. This is a highly specific and non-random group. It is plausible that behavioral differences between male and female brontosaurs (for example, males may have been more likely to venture into deep swamp areas while foraging) could explain why males are overrepresented in this particular site. Such a non-representative sample cannot be used to draw conclusions about the broader population of all brontosaurs.
\(\boxed{\text{Cannot generalize; the 20 brontosaurs are not a random sample of all brontosaurs}}\)
Question

Most-appropriate topic codes (AP Statistics):
• Topic 2.10 — The Binomial Distribution (Part c)
▶️ Answer/Explanation
(a)
A customer “misses out” if their neck size falls outside the range covered by S through XL, that is, below \(14\) inches or at \(18\) inches or above. So we need two tail probabilities:
\( P(\text{neck size}<14 \text{ or } \text{neck size}\ge18)=P(\text{neck size}<14)+P(\text{neck size}\ge18) \)
Convert each cutoff to a \(z\)-score using \(z=\dfrac{x-\mu}{\sigma}\):
\( z_1=\dfrac{14-15.7}{0.7}\approx-2.43 \)
\( z_2=\dfrac{18-15.7}{0.7}\approx3.29 \)
From the standard normal table:
\( P(z<-2.43)\approx0.0076 \)
\( P(z>3.29)\approx0.0005 \)
Adding these two tail areas together:
\( 0.0076+0.0005\approx0.0081 \)
\( \boxed{\text{About } 0.81\% \text{ of customers will not find their size.}} \)

(b)
Size M corresponds to neck sizes from \(15\) up to (but not including) \(16\) inches, so we need the area under the normal curve between these two values.

Convert both boundaries to \(z\)-scores:
\( z_1=\dfrac{15-15.7}{0.7}=-1.00 \)
\( z_2=\dfrac{16-15.7}{0.7}\approx0.43 \)
The proportion is the area between these two \(z\)-values:
\( P(-1.00<z<0.43)=P(z<0.43)-P(z<-1.00) \)
\( P(-1.00<z<0.43)\approx0.6664-0.1587 \)
\( P(-1.00<z<0.43)\approx0.5077 \)
\( \boxed{\text{About } 50.77\% \text{ of men wear size M.}} \)
(c)
Each of the \(12\) customers independently either requests size M or doesn’t, with the same probability of “success” each time — that’s a binomial setting. Let \(X\) be the number of customers (out of \(12\)) who request size M.
\( X\sim\text{Binomial}(n=12,\ p=0.5077) \)
We want the probability of exactly \(4\) successes, so we use the binomial formula:
\( P(X=4)=\binom{12}{4}(0.5077)^4(0.4923)^8 \)
Work out each piece separately. The number of ways to choose which \(4\) of the \(12\) customers want size M:
\( \binom{12}{4}=495 \)
The probability that \(4\) specific customers all want M:
\( (0.5077)^4\approx0.0664 \)
The probability that the remaining \(8\) customers all want something else:
\( (0.4923)^8\approx0.00347 \)
Multiply everything together:
\( P(X=4)\approx495\times0.0664\times0.00347 \)
\( P(X=4)\approx0.1139 \)
\( \boxed{P(X=4)\approx0.1139} \)
