AP Statistics 2.7 Independent Events and Unions of Events- Exam Style Questions - MCQs - New Syllabus
Question
A fair coin is to be flipped 5 times. The first 4 flips land “heads” up. What is the probability of “heads” on the next (5th) flip of this coin?
(A) 1
(B) \( \frac{1}{2} \)
(C) \(\binom{5}{1} \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^4\left(\frac{1}{2}\right) \)
(D) \( \frac{4}{5} \)
(E) \( 0 \)
▶️ Answer/Explanation
Coin flips are independent events. This means the outcome of one flip does not affect the outcome of any future flip.
Even though the first four flips were heads, the probability that the fifth flip is heads remains:
\( P(\text{Heads})=\frac{1}{2} \)
A common mistake is to think that tails is “due” after several heads in a row. This is known as the gambler’s fallacy. Since the coin is fair, every flip has a 50% chance of landing heads.
✅ Answer: (B)
Question
The height of each student at a large high school was measured and recorded. Suppose one student at this school is randomly selected. Let A be the event that the student is taller than 60 inches; let B be the event that the student is taller than 70 inches; and let C be the event that the student is shorter than 65 inches. Which of the following sets of events are mutually exclusive?
(A) Events A and B
(B) Events A and C
(C) Events \((A \cup B)\) and C
(D) Events \((A \cup C)\) and B
(E) Events \((A \cap C)\) and B
▶️ Answer/Explanation
Define the events:
\(A=\{\text{height} > 60\}\)
\(B=\{\text{height} > 70\}\)
\(C=\{\text{height} < 65\}\)
Notice that:
\(A \cap C=\{60 < \text{height} < 65\}\)
Any student in \(A \cap C\) must have a height less than 65 inches, while any student in \(B\) must have a height greater than 70 inches. Therefore, no student can belong to both events simultaneously.
\((A \cap C)\cap B=\varnothing\)
Since the intersection is empty, the events are mutually exclusive.
✅ Answer: (E)
Question
The Pew Research Center conducted a survey in 2018 with a random sample of U.S. adults and the following probabilities were estimated. You may assume all probability statements and questions are about U.S. adults in 2018.
- The probability they had not read a book in the past year was 0.22.
- The probability of being in age group 18-44 was 0.44.
- The probability of being in age group 18-44 and having not read a book in the past year was 0.12.
- The probability of being in age group 45 or more and having not read a book in the past year was 0.10.
Consider the events “not reading a book in the past year” and “age group 18-44.” Are these events independent?
(A) No, because if we know they are aged 18-44, their probability of not reading a book in the past year increased from 0.22 to 0.27.
(B) No, because if we know they are aged 18-44, their probability of not reading a book in the past year decreased from 0.22 to 0.10.
(C) No, because they can be both aged 18-44 and not read a book in the past year at the same time, with a probability of 0.10.
(D) Yes, because the probability of not reading a book in the past year is 0.22 and that should not be affected by how old they are.
(E) Yes, because the probability of not reading a book in the past year is 0.22 and the probability they are aged 18-44 is 0.44.
▶️ Answer/Explanation
To determine whether the events are independent, compare the overall probability of not reading a book to the conditional probability given that a person is aged 18–44.
Let:
\(P(\text{No Book})=0.22\)
\(P(18\text{–}44)=0.44\)
\(P(\text{No Book} \cap 18\text{–}44)=0.12\)
Compute the conditional probability:
\(P(\text{No Book}\mid 18\text{–}44)=\frac{0.12}{0.44}\approx0.273\)
Since:
\(0.273 \ne 0.22\)
knowing that a person is aged 18–44 changes the probability of not reading a book in the past year. Therefore, the events are not independent.
The probability increases from 0.22 to approximately 0.27, which matches choice (A).
✅ Answer: (A)
