Home / AP® Exam / AP® Statistics / AP Statistics 3.3 Constructing a Confidence Interval for a Population Proportion- Exam Style Questions – MCQs

AP Statistics 3.3 Constructing a Confidence Interval for a Population Proportion- Exam Style Questions - MCQs - New Syllabus

Question

In 2021, information from the US Census indicated that 29% of US households were single person households. In 2022, a group of researchers surveyed 1000 random US households and found that 310 of these households were single person households. The researchers computed a 95% confidence interval for the percentage of single person US households to be (0.2813, 0.3387). What can we claim based on the calculations provided here?

(A) There is sufficient evidence at the 0.05 level of significance to indicate there is no difference in the percentage of single person US households between 2021 and 2022.
(B) There is sufficient significant evidence at the 0.05 level of significance to suggest there is a difference in the percentage of single person US households between 2021 and 2022.
(C) There is not sufficient evidence at the 0.05 level of significance to suggest a significant difference in the percentage of single person US households between 2021 and 2022.
(D) All new samples of 1000 US households in 2022 will show the percentage of single person households as between 28.13 and 33.87 percent.
(E) The percentage of single person households in 2021 and 2022 is the same.

▶️ Answer/Explanation

The 95% confidence interval for the 2022 proportion of single-person households is:

\((0.2813,\;0.3387)\)

The 2021 Census value was:

\(p=0.29\)

Notice that:

\(0.2813 < 0.29 < 0.3387\)

Since the 2021 value of 0.29 lies within the 95% confidence interval, it is a plausible value for the 2022 population proportion. Therefore, the data do not provide sufficient evidence that the proportion of single-person households changed between 2021 and 2022.

A confidence interval that contains the hypothesized value corresponds to failing to reject the null hypothesis in a two-sided significance test at the matching significance level.

Therefore, there is not sufficient evidence at the 0.05 significance level to conclude that a significant difference exists.

Answer: (C)

Question 

At a large high school, a random sample of students was chosen, and each student was asked the question, “Have you ridden a bicycle in the past year?” The survey team took two days to contact all of the chosen students and collect the data. On the first day, 93 of the 151 students contacted indicated that they had ridden a bicycle in the past year; on the second day, 26 of the 36 students contacted indicated that they had ridden a bicycle in the past year.

Assuming all conditions for inference were met, what is the margin of error for a 95% confidence interval of the percentage of students at this school who have ridden a bicycle in the past year?

(A) 3.5%
(B) 5.8%
(C) 6.9%
(D) 8.4%
(E) 16.6%

▶️ Answer/Explanation

First combine the data from both days:
Total successes:
\( 93 + 26 = 119 \)

Total sample size:
\( 151 + 36 = 187 \)

Sample proportion:
\( \hat{p} = \frac{119}{187} \approx 0.636 \)

Standard error:
\( SE = \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}{n}} \)
\( = \sqrt{\frac{(0.636)(0.364)}{187}} \)
\( \approx 0.0352 \)

Margin of error for a 95% confidence interval:
\( ME = 1.96(SE) \)
\( = 1.96(0.0352) \)
\( \approx 0.069 \)

Converting to a percentage:
\( 0.069 = 6.9\% \)

Therefore, the margin of error is approximately 6.9%.

Answer: (C)

Question 

A city is interested in building a waste management facility in a certain area. One hundred randomly selected residents from this area were asked, “Do you support the city’s decision to build a waste management facility in your area?” Of the 100 residents interviewed, 54 said no, 4 said yes, and 42 had no opinion. A large sample z-confidence interval,

\[ \hat{p} \pm z^* \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}{n}} \]

was constructed from these data to estimate the proportion of this area’s residents who support building a waste management facility in their area. Which of the following statements is correct for this confidence interval?

(A) This confidence interval is valid because a sample size of more than 30 was used.
(B) This confidence interval is valid because each area resident was asked the same question.
(C) The confidence interval is valid because no conditions are required for constructing a large sample confidence interval for a proportion.
(D) This confidence interval is not valid because the quantity \(n\hat{p}\) is too small.
(E) This confidence interval is not valid because “no opinion” was included as a response category for the question.

▶️ Answer/Explanation

For a large-sample confidence interval for a population proportion, the success-failure condition must be satisfied:
\( n\hat{p} \ge 10 \)
and
\( n(1-\hat{p}) \ge 10 \)
Here, only 4 of the 100 residents answered “yes,” so:
\( \hat{p}=\frac{4}{100}=0.04 \)
Therefore,
\( n\hat{p}=100(0.04)=4 \)
Since \(4 < 10\), the success-failure condition is not met. As a result, the large-sample z-confidence interval is not appropriate.

Answer: (D)

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