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AP Statistics 4.1 Introducing Statistics: Random and Non-Random Patterns? - MCQs - Exam Style Questions

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Question

In the Atlantic Ocean, the hurricane season runs from June to November. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has stated that the probability of a hurricane making landfall in the United States in August \(2015\) is approximately \(27\%\). Which of the following is the most reasonable explanation for how this probability could have been estimated?
(A) In a large number of years for which hurricane activity was recorded, a hurricane made landfall in the U.S. during the month of August in \(27\%\) of these years.
(B) Twenty-seven percent of the hurricanes that made landfall in the United States in \(2014\) occurred in August.
(C) Historically, there have been \(27\) hurricanes that made landfall in the United States in August.
(D) There have not been any hurricanes in June or July, which increases the chance of a hurricane to be above \(1/6\).
(E) Of \(500\) randomly selected people in the United States, their average prediction was \(27\%\).
▶️ Answer/Explanation
Detailed solution

1. Interpret Probability:
The frequentist interpretation of probability defines it as the long-run relative frequency of an event over many repeated trials.

2. Apply to the Context:
To estimate the probability for a future August, statisticians would look at the data from many past years. The “trial” is a single year’s hurricane season. They would calculate the proportion of those past years in which a hurricane made landfall in August.

Statement (A) correctly describes this process of using the long-run relative frequency from historical data to estimate a probability.
✅ Answer: (A)

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