IB Mathematics SL 4.11 Formal definition and use of the formulae AA SL Paper 1- Exam Style Questions- New Syllabus
Bag A contains three white balls and four red balls. Two balls are chosen at random without replacement.
Part (a):
(i) Copy and complete the following tree diagram.
(ii) Find the probability that two white balls are chosen. [5]
Bag B contains four white balls and three red balls. When two balls are chosen at random without replacement from Bag B, the probability that they are both white is \( \frac{2}{7} \).
A standard die is rolled. If 1 or 2 is obtained, two balls are chosen without replacement from Bag A, otherwise they are chosen from Bag B.
Part (b):
Find the probability that the two balls are white. [5]
Part (c):
Given that both balls are white, find the probability that they were chosen from Bag A. [4]
▶️ Answer/Explanation
Part (a)
(i) Complete the tree diagram for Bag A (3 white, 4 red, two balls chosen without replacement).
First ball: \( P(W) = \frac{3}{7} \), \( P(R) = \frac{4}{7} \).
Second ball (after white): \( P(W) = \frac{2}{6} \), \( P(R) = \frac{4}{6} \).
Second ball (after red): \( P(W) = \frac{3}{6} \), \( P(R) = \frac{3}{6} \).
Answer: Probabilities on the second branches are \( \frac{4}{6} \), \( \frac{3}{6} \), \( \frac{3}{6} \), as shown below.
(ii) Find \( P(\text{two white}) \).
\[ P(WW) = P(W_1) \cdot P(W_2 | W_1) = \frac{3}{7} \cdot \frac{2}{6} = \frac{6}{42} = \frac{1}{7} \]
Answer: \( \frac{1}{7} \).
Part (b)
Find \( P(\text{two white}) \) with die roll (1 or 2: Bag A, else: Bag B).
Die: \( P(\text{Bag A}) = P(1 \text{ or } 2) = \frac{2}{6} = \frac{1}{3} \), \( P(\text{Bag B}) = \frac{4}{6} = \frac{2}{3} \).
From part (a)(ii): \( P(WW | A) = \frac{1}{7} \). Given: \( P(WW | B) = \frac{2}{7} \).
\[ P(WW) = P(WW \cap A) + P(WW \cap B) = P(A) \cdot P(WW | A) + P(B) \cdot P(WW | B) \]
\[ = \frac{1}{3} \cdot \frac{1}{7} + \frac{2}{3} \cdot \frac{2}{7} = \frac{1}{21} + \frac{4}{21} = \frac{5}{21} \]
Answer:</_apps.1-2″> \( \frac{5}{21} \).
Part (c)
Find \( P(A | WW) \).
Using conditional probability: \[ P(A | WW) = \frac{P(A \cap WW)}{P(WW)} \]
Numerator: \( P(A \cap WW) = P(A) \cdot P(WW | A) = \frac{1}{3} \cdot \frac{1}{7} = \frac{1}{21} \).
Denominator: From part (b), \( P(WW) = \frac{5}{21} \).
\[ P(A | WW) = \frac{\frac{1}{21}}{\frac{5}{21}} = \frac{1}{5} \]
Answer: \( \frac{1}{5} \).