IBDP Maths SL 4.8 Binomial distribution, its mean and variance AA HL Paper 1- Exam Style Questions- New Syllabus
A biased coin is weighted such that the probability of obtaining a head is \(\frac{4}{7}\). The coin is tossed 6 times and \(X\) denotes the number of heads observed.
Find the value of the ratio \(\frac{P(X = 3)}{P(X = 2)}\).
▶️ Answer/Explanation
We recognize that \(X \sim \text{B}\left(6, \frac{4}{7}\right)\) follows a binomial distribution.
Step 1: Calculate P(X=3)
\[ P(X=3) = \binom{6}{3}\left(\frac{4}{7}\right)^3\left(\frac{3}{7}\right)^3 = 20 \times \frac{64}{343} \times \frac{27}{343} \] \[ = 20 \times \frac{1728}{117649} \]
Step 2: Calculate P(X=2)
\[ P(X=2) = \binom{6}{2}\left(\frac{4}{7}\right)^2\left(\frac{3}{7}\right)^4 = 15 \times \frac{16}{49} \times \frac{81}{2401} \] \[ = 15 \times \frac{1296}{117649} \]
Step 3: Compute the ratio
\[ \frac{P(X=3)}{P(X=2)} = \frac{20 \times 1728}{15 \times 1296} = \frac{34560}{19440} = \frac{16}{9} \]
Thus, the ratio is \(\boxed{\dfrac{16}{9}}\).
Simplification note: The calculation can be simplified by observing that: \[ \frac{P(X=3)}{P(X=2)} = \frac{\binom{6}{3}}{\binom{6}{2}} \times \frac{\left(\frac{4}{7}\right)^3\left(\frac{3}{7}\right)^3}{\left(\frac{4}{7}\right)^2\left(\frac{3}{7}\right)^4} = \frac{20}{15} \times \frac{\frac{4}{7}}{\frac{3}{7}} = \frac{4}{3} \times \frac{4}{3} = \frac{16}{9} \]
On Saturday, Alfred and Beatrice play 6 different games against each other. In each game, one of the two wins. The probability that Alfred wins any one of these games is \(\frac{2}{3}\).
a. Show that the probability that Alfred wins exactly 4 of the games is \(\frac{{80}}{{243}}\). [3]
b. (i) Explain why the total number of possible outcomes for the results of the 6 games is 64.
(ii) By expanding \({(1 + x)^6}\) and choosing a suitable value for x, prove
\[64 = \left( {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}} 6 \\ 0 \end{array}} \right) + \left( {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}} 6 \\ 1 \end{array}} \right) + \left( {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}} 6 \\ 2 \end{array}} \right) + \left( {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}} 6 \\ 3 \end{array}} \right) + \left( {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}} 6 \\ 4 \end{array}} \right) + \left( {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}} 6 \\ 5 \end{array}} \right) + \left( {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}} 6 \\ 6 \end{array}} \right)\]
(iii) State the meaning of this equality in the context of the 6 games played. [4]
c. The following day Alfred and Beatrice play the 6 games again. Assume that the probability that Alfred wins any one of these games is still \(\frac{2}{3}\).
(i) Find an expression for the probability Alfred wins 4 games on the first day and 2 on the second day. Give your answer in the form \({\left( {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}} 6 \\ r \end{array}} \right)^2}{\left( {\frac{2}{3}} \right)^s}{\left( {\frac{1}{3}} \right)^t}\) where the values of r, s and t are to be found.
(ii) Using your answer to (c)(i) and 6 similar expressions write down the probability that Alfred wins a total of 6 games over the two days as the sum of 7 probabilities.
(iii) Hence prove that \(\left( {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}} {12} \\ 6 \end{array}} \right) = {\left( {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}} 6 \\ 0 \end{array}} \right)^2} + {\left( {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}} 6 \\ 1 \end{array}} \right)^2} + {\left( {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}} 6 \\ 2 \end{array}} \right)^2} + {\left( {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}} 6 \\ 3 \end{array}} \right)^2} + {\left( {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}} 6 \\ 4 \end{array}} \right)^2} + {\left( {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}} 6 \\ 5 \end{array}} \right)^2} + {\left( {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}} 6 \\ 6 \end{array}} \right)^2}\). [9]
d. Alfred and Beatrice play n games. Let A denote the number of games Alfred wins. The expected value of A can be written as \({\text{E}}(A) = \sum\limits_{r = 0}^n {r\left( {\begin{array}{*{20}{c}} n \\ r \end{array}} \right)} \frac{{{a^r}}}{{{b^n}}}\).
(i) Find the values of a and b.
(ii) By differentiating the expansion of \({(1 + x)^n}\), prove that the expected number of games Alfred wins is \(\frac{{2n}}{3}\). [6]
▶️ Answer/Explanation
This follows a binomial distribution \(B(6, \frac{2}{3})\).
Probability of exactly 4 wins: \( P(X = 4) = \binom{6}{4} \left(\frac{2}{3}\right)^4 \left(\frac{1}{3}\right)^{6-4} \).
Calculate: \(\binom{6}{4} = 15\), \(\left(\frac{2}{3}\right)^4 = \frac{16}{81}\), \(\left(\frac{1}{3}\right)^2 = \frac{1}{9}\).
\( P(X = 4) = 15 \times \frac{16}{81} \times \frac{1}{9} = 15 \times \frac{16}{729} = \frac{240}{729} \).
Simplify: \(\frac{240 \div 3}{729 \div 3} = \frac{80}{243}\).
Thus, \(\boxed{\frac{80}{243}}\).
Each game has 2 possible outcomes (Alfred wins or loses), and there are 6 games.
Total outcomes = \(2^6 = 64\).
\(\boxed{64}\)
Expand \((1 + x)^6\) using the binomial theorem:
\((1 + x)^6 = \binom{6}{0} + \binom{6}{1}x + \binom{6}{2}x^2 + \binom{6}{3}x^3 + \binom{6}{4}x^4 + \binom{6}{5}x^5 + \binom{6}{6}x^6\).
Substitute \(x = 1\):
\((1 + 1)^6 = 2^6 = 64\).
Right side: \(\binom{6}{0} + \binom{6}{1} + \binom{6}{2} + \binom{6}{3} + \binom{6}{4} + \binom{6}{5} + \binom{6}{6}\).
Calculate: \(\binom{6}{0} = 1\), \(\binom{6}{1} = 6\), \(\binom{6}{2} = 15\), \(\binom{6}{3} = 20\), \(\binom{6}{4} = 15\), \(\binom{6}{5} = 6\), \(\binom{6}{6} = 1\).
Total = \(1 + 6 + 15 + 20 + 15 + 6 + 1 = 64\).
Thus, \(\boxed{64 = \binom{6}{0} + \binom{6}{1} + \binom{6}{2} + \binom{6}{3} + \binom{6}{4} + \binom{6}{5} + \binom{6}{6}}\).
This equality represents the total number of possible outcomes for the 6 games, which is the sum of the number of ways Alfred can win 0 games, 1 game, 2 games, 3 games, 4 games, 5 games, or 6 games.
\(\boxed{\text{Total number of outcomes = sum of ways Alfred wins 0 to 6 games}}\)
Probability Alfred wins 4 on first day and 2 on second day:
\(P(4, 2) = \binom{6}{4} \left(\frac{2}{3}\right)^4 \left(\frac{1}{3}\right)^2 \times \binom{6}{2} \left(\frac{2}{3}\right)^2 \left(\frac{1}{3}\right)^4\).
Combine: \(\binom{6}{4} \times \binom{6}{2} \left(\frac{2}{3}\right)^{4+2} \left(\frac{1}{3}\right)^{2+4} = \binom{6}{4}^2 \left(\frac{2}{3}\right)^6 \left(\frac{1}{3}\right)^6\).
So, \(r = 4\), \(s = 6\), \(t = 6\).
\(\boxed{\binom{6}{4}^2 \left(\frac{2}{3}\right)^6 \left(\frac{1}{3}\right)^6}\)
Probability Alfred wins total of 6 games:
\(P(\text{Total} = 6) = P(0, 6) + P(1, 5) + P(2, 4) + P(3, 3) + P(4, 2) + P(5, 1) + P(6, 0)\).
Each term: \(\binom{6}{0}^2 \left(\frac{2}{3}\right)^6 \left(\frac{1}{3}\right)^6 + \binom{6}{1}^2 \left(\frac{2}{3}\right)^6 \left(\frac{1}{3}\right)^6 + \cdots + \binom{6}{6}^2 \left(\frac{2}{3}\right)^6 \left(\frac{1}{3}\right)^6\).
\(\boxed{\frac{2^6}{3^{12}} \left(\binom{6}{0}^2 + \binom{6}{1}^2 + \binom{6}{2}^2 + \binom{6}{3}^2 + \binom{6}{4}^2 + \binom{6}{5}^2 + \binom{6}{6}^2\right)}\)
Probability of 6 wins out of 12: \(\binom{12}{6} \left(\frac{2}{3}\right)^6 \left(\frac{1}{3}\right)^6 = \frac{2^6}{3^{12}} \binom{12}{6}\).
From (ii), this equals \(\frac{2^6}{3^{12}} \left(\binom{6}{0}^2 + \binom{6}{1}^2 + \binom{6}{2}^2 + \binom{6}{3}^2 + \binom{6}{4}^2 + \binom{6}{5}^2 + \binom{6}{6}^2\right)\).
Thus, \(\binom{12}{6} = \binom{6}{0}^2 + \binom{6}{1}^2 + \binom{6}{2}^2 + \binom{6}{3}^2 + \binom{6}{4}^2 + \binom{6}{5}^2 + \binom{6}{6}^2\).
\(\boxed{\binom{12}{6} = \binom{6}{0}^2 + \binom{6}{1}^2 + \binom{6}{2}^2 + \binom{6}{3}^2 + \binom{6}{4}^2 + \binom{6}{5}^2 + \binom{6}{6}^2}\)
Expected value: \(E(A) = \sum_{r=0}^n r \binom{n}{r} \left(\frac{2}{3}\right)^r \left(\frac{1}{3}\right)^{n-r} = \sum_{r=0}^n r \binom{n}{r} \frac{2^r}{3^n}\).
So, \(a = 2\), \(b = 3\).
\(\boxed{a = 2, b = 3}\)
Differentiate \((1 + x)^n\): \(\frac{d}{dx} (1 + x)^n = n (1 + x)^{n-1}\).
Expansion: \(\sum_{r=0}^n \binom{n}{r} x^r\), derivative: \(\sum_{r=1}^n r \binom{n}{r} x^{r-1} = n (1 + x)^{n-1}\).
Set \(x = \frac{2}{3}\): \(n \left(1 + \frac{2}{3}\right)^{n-1} = n \left(\frac{5}{3}\right)^{n-1}\).
Right side: \(\sum_{r=1}^n r \binom{n}{r} \left(\frac{2}{3}\right)^{r-1}\).
Multiply by \(\frac{2}{3}\): \(\frac{2n}{3} \left(\frac{5}{3}\right)^{n-2} = \sum_{r=1}^n r \binom{n}{r} \left(\frac{2}{3}\right)^r \frac{1}{3^{n-1}}\).
Adjust: \(\frac{2n}{3} = \sum_{r=1}^n r \binom{n}{r} \frac{2^r}{3^n}\).
Including \(r=0\) term (which is 0), \(E(A) = \frac{2n}{3}\).
\(\boxed{\frac{2n}{3}}\)