IB Mathematics AHL 4.13: The Coefficient of Determination (R²) AI HL Paper 1- Exam Style Questions- New Syllabus
A cup of hot water is placed in a room and is left to cool for half an hour. Its temperature, measured in °C, is recorded every 5 minutes. The results are shown in the table:
Akira uses the power function \( T(t) = at^b + 25 \) to model the temperature, \( T \), of the water \( t \) minutes after it was placed in the room.
Soo Min models the temperature, \( T \), of the water \( t \) minutes after it was placed in the room as \( T(t) = kc^t + 25 \).
(a) State what the value of 25 represents in this context [2]
(b) Use your graphic display calculator to find the value of \( a \) and of \( b \) [3]
(c) Find the value of \( k \) and of \( c \) [3]
(d) State a reason why Soo Min’s model of the temperature is a better fit for the data than Akira’s model [2]
▶️ Answer/Explanation
(a)
25 represents the room temperature (°C)
In both models, \( T(t) = at^b + 25 \) and \( T(t) = kc^t + 25 \)
As \( t \to \infty \), \( at^b \to 0 \) (since \( b < 0 \)) and \( kc^t \to 0 \) (since \( c < 1 \))
\( T(t) \to 25 \), the equilibrium temperature
Result: Room temperature in °C [2]
(b)
\( a = 244 \), \( b = -1.03 \)
Model: \( T(t) = at^b + 25 \)
Adjust temperatures: \( (85-25, 55-25, 43-25, 36-25, 31-25, 28-25) = (60, 30, 18, 11, 6, 3) \)
Data: \( t = (0, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25) \), \( y = (60, 30, 18, 11, 6, 3) \)
Fit \( y = at^b \) using power regression
\( a \approx 243.920 \approx 244 \)
\( b \approx -1.02965 \approx -1.03 \)
Result: \( a = 244 \), \( b = -1.03 \) [3]
(c)
\( k = 61.1 \), \( c = 0.923 \)
Model: \( T(t) = kc^t + 25 \)
Use adjusted data: \( t = (0, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25) \), \( y = (60, 30, 18, 11, 6, 3) \)
Fit \( y = kc^t \) using exponential regression
\( k \approx 61.0848 \approx 61.1 \)
\( c \approx 0.923029 \approx 0.923 \)
Result: \( k = 61.1 \), \( c = 0.923 \) [3]
(d)
Soo Min’s model has a higher \( R^2 \) value
Method 1
Akira’s model: \( T(t) = 244 t^{-1.03} + 25 \), \( R^2 \approx 0.7657 \)
Soo Min’s model: \( T(t) = 61.1 \times 0.923^t + 25 \), \( R^2 \approx 0.9233 \)
Higher \( R^2 \) (0.9233 vs. 0.7657) indicates better fit
Method 2
Exponential decay in Soo Min’s model aligns with Newton’s law of cooling
Power model does not match physical cooling process
Result: Soo Min’s model is better [2]