Home / IB Mathematics AHL 4.15 A linear combination of n independent normal AI HL Paper 1- Exam Style Questions

IB Mathematics AHL 4.15 A linear combination of n independent normal AI HL Paper 1- Exam Style Questions

IB Mathematics AHL 4.15 A linear combination of n independent normal AI HL Paper 1- Exam Style Questions- New Syllabus

Question

A company produces bags of sugar with a labelled weight of 1kg. The weights of the bags are normally distributed with a mean of 1kg and a standard deviation of 100g. In an inspection, if the weight of a randomly chosen bag is less than 950g then the company fails the inspection.

(a) Find the probability that the company fails the inspection [3]

A statistician in the company suggests it would be fairer if the company passes the inspection when the mean weight of five randomly chosen bags is greater than 950g.

(b) Find the probability of passing the inspection if the statistician’s suggestion is followed [4]

▶️ Answer/Explanation
Markscheme

(a)
0.309

\( X \sim N(1000, 100^2) \)

Seek: \( P(X < 950) \)

Z-score: \( z = \frac{950 – 1000}{100} = -0.5 \)

\( P(Z < -0.5) \approx 0.3085 \)

Round to 3 decimal places: 0.309

Result: 0.309 [3]

(b)
0.868

Method 1
Let \( \overline{X} \) be the mean weight of 5 bags

\( \overline{X} \sim N\left(1000, \frac{100^2}{5}\right) = N(1000, 2000) \)

Standard deviation: \( \sigma_{\overline{X}} = \frac{100}{\sqrt{5}} \approx 44.721 \)

Seek: \( P(\overline{X} > 950) \)

Z-score: \( z = \frac{950 – 1000}{44.721} \approx -1.118 \)

\( P(Z > -1.118) = 1 – P(Z < -1.118) \approx 1 – 0.1318 = 0.8682 \)

Round to 3 decimal places: 0.868

Method 2
Let \( T \) be the total weight of 5 bags

\( T \sim N(5 \times 1000, 5 \times 100^2) = N(5000, 50000) \)

Standard deviation: \( \sigma_T = \sqrt{5 \times 100^2} \approx 223.607 \)

\( \overline{X} > 950 \implies T > 5 \times 950 = 4750 \)

Z-score: \( z = \frac{4750 – 5000}{223.607} \approx -1.118 \)

\( P(Z > -1.118) \approx 0.8682 \approx 0.868 \)

Result: 0.868 [4]

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