Home / IB Mathematics SL 4.7: Concept of discrete random variables AI SL Paper 2- Exam Style Questions

IB Mathematics SL 4.7: Concept of discrete random variables AI SL Paper 2- Exam Style Questions- New Syllabus

Question

Elena manages a local bakery and is evaluating her staffing requirements. Data has been collected over an extended period regarding the number of people, \(C\), currently waiting in line when a new patron enters. The discrete probability distribution for \(C\) is presented in the table below:
\(c\)0123\(\ge 4\)
\(P(C=c)\)0.210.340.280.170
(a) (i) Calculate the probability that at least two individuals are in the queue upon a new arrival.
(ii) Determine the expected value \(E(C)\).
The service time in seconds, \(T\), for an individual patron follows a normal distribution such that \(T \sim N(115, 28^2)\). Elena uses the product \(E(C) \times E(T)\) as a heuristic to estimate the average wait time for a customer.
(b) Calculate the value of \(E(C) \times E(T)\).
Elena establishes a policy to recruit an additional employee if the probability of a customer waiting longer than 180 seconds (three minutes) exceeds 0.4.
(c) Based on the distribution of \(T\), find the probability that the service time for a single randomly chosen customer exceeds three minutes.
(d) Determine the probability that the combined service time for two independent, randomly selected customers exceeds three minutes.
Elena models the arrival process by assuming the customer currently being served has just begun their transaction. Furthermore, she assumes that the probability of the total service time for three customers exceeding three minutes is exactly 1.
(e) Utilizing Elena’s modeling assumptions and the provided queue data:
(i) calculate the probability that a newly arriving customer will experience a wait time exceeding three minutes.
(ii) determine, with justification, whether Elena will proceed with hiring more staff.

Most-appropriate topic codes:

TOPIC SL 4.7: Discrete random variables and expected value  — part (a)
TOPIC SL 4.9: Normal distribution calculations  — part (c)
TOPIC AHL 4.14: Linear combinations of independent normal variables — part (d)
TOPIC AHL 4.14: Expected value and variance of linear combinations — part (b), (e)
▶️ Answer/Explanation
Detailed solution

(a)
(i) \(P(C \ge 2) = P(C=2) + P(C=3) = 0.28 + 0.17 = \mathbf{0.45}\).
(ii) \(E(C) = \sum c \times P(C=c) = (0 \times 0.21) + (1 \times 0.34) + (2 \times 0.28) + (3 \times 0.17)\).
\(E(C) = 0 + 0.34 + 0.56 + 0.51 = \mathbf{1.41}\).

(b)
\(E(T) = 115\).
Value = \(1.41 \times 115 = \mathbf{162}\) (162.15) seconds (or 2m 42s).

(c)
\(T \sim N(115, 28^2)\). Need \(P(T > 180)\) (3 minutes).
Using GDC Normal CDF: Lower=180, Upper=1E99, \(\mu=115, \sigma=28\).
\(P \approx \mathbf{0.0101}\) (0.01013…).

(d)
Total time for two customers \(T_2 = T_1 + T_2\).
Mean \(= 115 + 115 = 230\). Variance \(= 28^2 + 28^2 = 2 \times 28^2\). SD \(= \sqrt{2 \times 28^2} \approx 39.6\).
Need \(P(T_2 > 180)\).
Using GDC: \(P \approx \mathbf{0.897}\) (0.8966…).

(e)
(i) Probability of waiting > 3 mins depends on how many people in queue.
– If 0 in queue: Wait is 0 (Prob 0).
– If 1 in queue: Wait is 1 service time. \(P(T > 180) \approx 0.0101\) (from c).
– If 2 in queue: Wait is 2 service times. \(P(T_2 > 180) \approx 0.897\) (from d).
– If 3 in queue: Wait is 3 service times. \(P(T_3 > 180) = 1\) (Assumption given).
Total Probability = \((0.21 \times 0) + (0.34 \times 0.0101) + (0.28 \times 0.897) + (0.17 \times 1)\).
\(P \approx 0 + 0.0034 + 0.251 + 0.17 = \mathbf{0.425}\) (0.4245…).
(ii) Since \(0.425 > 0.4\), she will  employ more staff.

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