IB Mathematics AI SL Binomial distribution. Mean and variance MAI Study Notes- New Syllabus
IB Mathematics AI SL Binomial distribution. Mean and variance MAI Study Notes
LEARNING OBJECTIVE
- Binomial distribution.
Key Concepts:
- Binomial distribution
- Mean and variance of the binomial distribution.
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BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
◆ BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION – \( B(n,p) \)
It is the distribution of a discrete random variable \( X \) which takes on the values:
$ 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, \dots, n $
with probability function:
$ p(x) = \binom{n}{x} p^x (1-p)^{n-x} \quad \text{for} \quad x = 0, 1, 2, 3, \dots, n $
where \( n \) and \( p \) are two parameters. We will see that the binomial distribution describes a certain type of problems.
SUCCESS with probability \( p \).
FAILURE with probability \( 1-p \).
\( n \) = number of trials.
\( p \) = probability of success.
While:
\( X \) counts the number of (possible) successes.
\( X \sim B(n,p) \).
Since \( n \) is the number of trials, \( X \) can take on the values:
$ 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, \dots, n $
The probabilities \( P(X=0), P(X=1), P(X=2) \), etc., can be obtained by the GDC.
$ \mathbf{GDC}$
Our GDC (Casio) gives the results for a Binomial distribution:
$\text{MENU → Statistics → DIST → BINOMIAL:}$ We use Bpd or Bcd.
For simplicity, let us denote by:
Bpd(x): The probability of exactly \( x \) successes.
Bcd(x₁ to x₂): The probability from \( x₁ \) up to \( x₂ \) successes.
The menu for both functions is:
Data: Always Variable.
Numtrial: The number of trials, i.e., \( n \).
p: The probability of success \( p \) (for each game).
Then, for each value of \( x \) (or \( x₁ \) to \( x₂ \)), EXE gives the result.
Example 1 We toss a die 5 times. A success is defined as getting a six. Given:
We may get 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 sixes. Questions:
▶️Answer/ExplanationSolution:
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MEAN AND VARIANCE OF THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
◆ EXPECTED VALUE/MEAN AND VARIANCE OF \( X \)
They are given by the formulae:
$ E(X) = np \quad \text{and} \quad \text{Var}(X) = np(1-p) $
For example (1) above:
$ E(X) = 5 \times \frac{1}{6} = \frac{5}{6} \quad \text{and} \quad \text{Var}(X) = 5 \times \frac{1}{6} \times \frac{5}{6} = \frac{25}{36} $
EXAMPLE 2: Binomial Distribution Application A box contains 5 balls: 1 BLACK and 4 WHITE. We win if we select a BLACK ball. We play this game 10 times. ▶️ Answer/ExplanationSolution: The variable: (a) The probability to win exactly 4 times is \( \text{Bpd}(4) = 0.088 \). (b) The probability to win at most 4 times is \( \text{Bcd}(0 \text{ to } 4) = 0.967 \). (c) The probability to win at least once is \( \text{Bcd}(1 \text{ to } 10) = 0.893 \). (d) The expected number is \( E(X) = np = 10 \times 0.2 = 2 \). (e) The variance is \( \text{Var}(X) = np(1-p) = 10 \times 0.2 \times 0.8 = 1.6 \). |