Home / iGCSE Mathematics (0580) :E8.4 Conditional probability  iGCSE Style Questions Paper 4

iGCSE Mathematics (0580) :E8.4 Conditional probability  iGCSE Style Questions Paper 4

Question

The probability that it will rain tomorrow is \(\frac{5}{8}\).

If it rains, the probability that Rafael walks to school is \(\frac{1}{6}\).

If it does not rain, the probability that Rafael walks to school is \(\frac{7}{10}\).

(a) Complete the tree diagram.

(b) Calculate the probability that it will rain tomorrow and Rafael walks to school.

(c) Calculate the probability that Rafael does not walk to school.

▶️ Answer/Explanation
Solution

(a) Ans: \(\frac{5}{8}\), \(\frac{3}{8}\), \(\frac{1}{6}\), \(\frac{5}{6}\), \(\frac{7}{10}\), \(\frac{3}{10}\)

First branch: Rain (\(\frac{5}{8}\)) and No Rain (\(\frac{3}{8}\)).

Second branch (Rain): Walk (\(\frac{1}{6}\)) and No Walk (\(\frac{5}{6}\)).

Second branch (No Rain): Walk (\(\frac{7}{10}\)) and No Walk (\(\frac{3}{10}\)).

(b) Ans: \(\frac{5}{48}\)

Multiply the probabilities: \(P(\text{Rain}) \times P(\text{Walk}|\text{Rain}) = \frac{5}{8} \times \frac{1}{6} = \frac{5}{48}\).

(c) Ans: \(\frac{304}{480}\) (or simplified \(\frac{19}{30}\))

Calculate \(P(\text{No Walk}|\text{Rain}) = \frac{5}{8} \times \frac{5}{6} = \frac{25}{48}\).

Calculate \(P(\text{No Walk}|\text{No Rain}) = \frac{3}{8} \times \frac{3}{10} = \frac{9}{80}\).

Add them: \(\frac{25}{48} + \frac{9}{80} = \frac{125}{240} + \frac{27}{240} = \frac{152}{240} = \frac{304}{480}\).

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