IB Mathematics AHL 4.14 Variance of random variable AA HL Paper 3
Question
This question asks you to find the probability of graphs of randomly generated quadratic functions having a specified number of x-intercepts.
In parts (a) – (f), consider quadratic functions, $f(x) = ax^2 + bx + c$, whose coefficients, $a$, $b$ and $c$, are randomly generated in turn by rolling an unbiased six-sided die three times and reading off the value shown on the uppermost face of the die.
For example, rolling a 2, 3 and 5 in turn generates the quadratic function $f(x) = 2x^2 + 3x + 5$.
(a) Explain why there are 216 possible quadratic functions that can be generated using this method.
(b) The set of coefficients, $a = 1$, $b = 4$ and $c = 4$, is randomly generated to form the quadratic function $f(x) = x^2 + 4x + 4$.
Verify that this graph of $f$ has only one x-intercept.
(c) By considering the discriminant, or otherwise, show that the probability of the graph of such a randomly generated quadratic function having only one x-intercept is $\frac{5}{216}$.
Now consider randomly generated quadratic functions whose corresponding graphs have two distinct x-intercepts.
(d) By considering the discriminant, determine the set of possible values of $ac$.
(e) (i) For the case where $ac = 1$, show that there are four quadratic functions whose corresponding graphs have two distinct x-intercepts.
(ii) For the case where $ac = 2$, show that there are eight quadratic functions whose corresponding graphs have two distinct x-intercepts.
Let $p$ be the probability of the graph of such a randomly generated quadratic function having two distinct x-intercepts.
(f) Using the approach started in part (e), or otherwise, find the value of $p$.
In parts (g) and (h), consider a randomly generated quadratic function, $f(x) = x^2 + 2Zx + 1$, where the continuous random variable $Z \sim N(0, 1)$.
(g) Find the probability that the graph of $f$ has two x-intercepts.
The continuous random variables, $X_1$ and $X_2$, represent the x-intercepts of the graph of $f$, where $X_1 = -Z – \sqrt{Z^2 – 1}$ and $X_2 = -Z + \sqrt{Z^2 – 1}$.
(h) Given that the graph of $f$ has two x-intercepts, $X_1$ and $X_2$, find the probability that both $X_1$ and $X_2$ are greater than 0.5.
▶️Answer/Explanation
Detailed solution
(a) The quadratic function is of the form \( f(x) = ax^2 + bx + c \), where each coefficient \( a \), \( b \), and \( c \) is determined by rolling a six-sided die. A standard six-sided die has faces numbered 1 through 6, so each coefficient can take any integer value from 1 to 6. Since the rolls are independent for \( a \), \( b \), and \( c \):
Number of choices for \( a \): 6
Number of choices for \( b \): 6
Number of choices for \( c \): 6
The total number of possible combinations is the product of these choices:
\[ 6 \times 6 \times 6 = 6^3 = 216 \]
Thus, there are 216 possible quadratic functions that can be generated.
(b) To find the x-intercepts of \( f(x) = x^2 + 4x + 4 \), set the function equal to zero and solve for \( x \):
\[ x^2 + 4x + 4 = 0 \]
Notice that this is a perfect square trinomial:
\[ x^2 + 4x + 4 = (x + 2)^2 \]
So the equation becomes:
\[ (x + 2)^2 = 0 \]
Taking the square root of both sides:
\[ x + 2 = 0 \]
\[ x = -2 \]
The equation has exactly one solution, \( x = -2 \), because the quadratic is a perfect square and touches the x-axis at a single point (the vertex). Alternatively, we can check the discriminant (\( \Delta = b^2 – 4ac \)):
– \( a = 1 \), \( b = 4 \), \( c = 4 \)
– \( \Delta = 4^2 – 4 \cdot 1 \cdot 4 = 16 – 16 = 0 \)
A discriminant of zero confirms that there is exactly one real root. Thus, \( f(x) = x^2 + 4x + 4 \) has only one x-intercept.
(c) The number of x-intercepts depends on the discriminant \( \Delta = b^2 – 4ac \). For a quadratic to have exactly one x-intercept, \( \Delta = 0 \), meaning:
\[ b^2 – 4ac = 0 \]
OR \[ b^2 = 4ac \]
Since \( a \), \( b \), and \( c \) are integers from 1 to 6, we need to find all triples \( (a, b, c) \) that satisfy this equation. Also, \( b^2 \) is a perfect square (since \( b \) is an integer), and \( 4ac \) must be positive and a perfect square. Possible values of \( b \) are 1 to 6, so \( b^2 \) can be 1, 4, 9, 16, 25, or 36. We need \( 4ac = b^2 \), and since \( a \) and \( c \) are between 1 and 6, \( ac \) ranges from 1 to 36, and \( 4ac \) from 4 to 144. Let’s find the valid cases:
\( b = 1 \), \( b^2 = 1 \):
\[ 4ac = 1 \]
\[ ac = \frac{1}{4} \]
Not possible since \( ac \) must be an integer and at least 1.
\( b = 2 \), \( b^2 = 4 \):
\[ 4ac = 4 \]
\[ ac = 1 \]
Pairs: \( (a, c) = (1, 1) \)
Number of triples: 1
\( b = 3 \), \( b^2 = 9 \):
\[ 4ac = 9 \]
\[ ac = \frac{9}{4} \]
Not an integer, so no solutions.
\( b = 4 \), \( b^2 = 16 \):
\[ 4ac = 16 \]
\[ ac = 4 \]
Pairs: \( (1, 4) \), \( (2, 2) \), \( (4, 1) \)
Number of triples: 3
\( b = 5 \), \( b^2 = 25 \):
\[ 4ac = 25 \]
\[ ac = \frac{25}{4} \]
Not an integer, so no solutions.
\( b = 6 \), \( b^2 = 36 \):
\[ 4ac = 36 \]
\[ ac = 9 \]
Pairs: \( (3, 3) \)
Number of triples: 1
Total number of triples: \( 1 + 3 + 1 = 5 \). The triples are:
1. \( (1, 2, 1) \): \( x^2 + 2x + 1 = (x + 1)^2 \)
2. \( (1, 4, 4) \): \( x^2 + 4x + 4 = (x + 2)^2 \)
3. \( (2, 4, 2) \): \( 2x^2 + 4x + 2 = 2(x + 1)^2 \)
4. \( (4, 4, 1) \): \( 4x^2 + 4x + 1 = (2x + 1)^2 \)
5. \( (3, 6, 3) \): \( 3x^2 + 6x + 3 = 3(x + 1)^2 \)
Each has \( \Delta = 0 \), confirming one x-intercept. Total possible functions = 216, so:
\[ \text{Probability} = \frac{5}{216} \]
(d) For two distinct x-intercepts, \( \Delta > 0 \):
\[ b^2 – 4ac > 0 \]
OR \[ b^2 > 4ac \]
OR \[ 4ac < b^2 \]
Since \( b \) ranges from 1 to 6, \( b^2 \) is 1, 4, 9, 16, 25, 36, and \( a \) and \( c \) from 1 to 6, so \( ac \) ranges from 1 to 36, and \( 4ac \) from 4 to 144. We need \( 4ac < b^2 \), and \( ac \) must be an integer. Possible \( ac \) values depend on \( b \), but overall, \( 4ac < 36 \) (since \( b^2 \leq 36 \)):
\[ 4ac < 36 \]
\[ ac < 9 \]
\[ ac \leq 8 \]
Possible \( ac \): 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8 (since \( a, c \geq 1 \), \( ac = 7 \) is possible with \( (1, 7) \) etc., but we test up to 8 based on pairs).
(e) (i) For \( ac = 1 \), so \( (a, c) = (1, 1) \). \( b \) from 1 to 6:
\( \Delta = b^2 – 4 \cdot 1 \cdot 1 = b^2 – 4 \)
\( b = 1 \): \( 1 – 4 < 0 \)
\( b = 2 \): \( 4 – 4 = 0 \)
\( b = 3 \): \( 9 – 4 = 5 > 0 \)
\( b = 4 \): \( 16 – 4 = 12 > 0 \)
\( b = 5 \): \( 25 – 4 = 21 > 0 \)
\( b = 6 \): \( 36 – 4 = 32 > 0 \)
\( b = 3, 4, 5, 6 \) work. Number of functions = 4.
(e) (ii) For \( ac = 2 \): \( (1, 2) \), \( (2, 1) \). For each:
\( a = 1, c = 2 \): \( \Delta = b^2 – 4 \cdot 1 \cdot 2 = b^2 – 8 \)
\( b = 1, 2 \): \( < 0 \)
\( b = 3 \): \( 9 – 8 = 1 > 0 \)
\( b = 4 \): \( 16 – 8 = 8 > 0 \)
\( b = 5, 6 \): \( > 0 \)
4 cases
\( a = 2, c = 1 \): Same \( \Delta \), 4 cases
Total = 8.
(f) the probability of two distinct x-intercepts.
Count all cases for \( ac = 1 \) to 8, \( \Delta > 0 \):
\( ac = 1 \): 4
\( ac = 2 \): 8
\( ac = 3 \): \( (1, 3) \), \( (3, 1) \), \( b = 4, 5, 6 \) (3 each), 6
\( ac = 4 \): \( (1, 4) \), \( (2, 2) \), \( (4, 1) \), \( b = 5, 6 \) (2 each), 6
\( ac = 5 \): \( (1, 5) \), \( (5, 1) \), \( b = 5, 6 \) (2 each), 4
\( ac = 6 \): \( (1, 6) \), \( (2, 3) \), \( (3, 2) \), \( (6, 1) \), \( b = 5, 6 \) (except \( 2, 3 \) needs \( b \geq 5 \)), 8
\( ac = 8 \): \( (2, 4) \), \( (4, 2) \), \( b = 6 \), 2
Total = 38
Therefore, probability \( p = \frac{38}{216} = \frac{19}{108} \).
(g) Probability that \( f(x) = x^2 + 2Zx + 1 \) has two x-intercepts, \( Z \sim N(0, 1) \).
\( \Delta = (2Z)^2 – 4 \cdot 1 \cdot 1 = 4Z^2 – 4 \):
\[ 4Z^2 – 4 > 0 \]
\[ Z^2 > 1 \]
\[ |Z| > 1 \]
\( P(|Z| > 1) = 2 \cdot P(Z > 1) = 2 \cdot (1 – \Phi(1)) \approx 2 \cdot (0.1587 )= 0.3174 \).
(h) Probability that \( X_1 > 0.5 \) and \( X_2 > 0.5 \).
Roots: \( X_1 = -Z – \sqrt{Z^2 – 1} \), \( X_2 = -Z + \sqrt{Z^2 – 1} \). Given two roots, \( Z^2 > 1 \). \( X_2 > X_1 \), so if \( X_1 > 0.5 \), check \( X_2 \):
\[ -Z – \sqrt{Z^2 – 1} > 0.5 \]
\[ -\sqrt{Z^2 – 1} > 0.5 + Z \]
For \( Z < -1 \), both roots positive when \( Z < -1.5 \). Compute \( P(Z < -1.5 | |Z| > 1) = \frac{\Phi(-1.5)}{2 \cdot (1 – \Phi(1))} \approx 0.4338 \).
————Markscheme—————–
Solution: –
(a) \(6^{3}\) OR \(6\times6\times6\)
= 216
(b) EITHER
attempts to find \(\Delta\)
\[\Delta \left [ =\left ( 4^{2}-4(1)(4) \right ) \right ]=0\]
OR
attempts to solve \(x^{2} + 4x + 4 = 0\)
\((x+2)^{2} = 0 \Rightarrow x = -2\)
OR
attempts to express \(x^{2} + 4x + 4 = 0\) as a perfect square
\((x+2)^{2} = 0\) is a perfect square
OR
a graph of \(y = x^{2} + 4x + 4\) with the vertex touching the x-axis at \(x = -2\)
THEN
graph of \(f\) has only one x-intercept
(c) recognizes that $b^{2}-4ac=0$ (or equivalent)
EITHER
attempts to use $\frac{b^{2}}{ac}=4 \left(\frac{b^{2}}{4}=ac\right)$
determines one value of $b$ from $b=2,4$ or 6 only OR one value of $ac$ from $ac=1,4$ or 9 only
OR
attempts to find a possible value of $b$
determines one value of $b$ from $b=2,4$ or 6 only
OR
recognizes that $b^{2}$ must be a multiple of 4 OR $b$ must be a multiple of 2
determines one value of $b$ from $b=2,4$ or 6 only
OR
attempts to find a possible value of $ac$
determines one value of $ac$ from $ac=1,4$ or 9 only
THEN
b=2 and ac=1:
(a,b,c)=(1,2,1) OR 1 possible way OR $\frac{1}{216}$
b=4 and ac=4:
(a,b,c)=(1,4,4),(4,4,1),(2,4,2) OR 3 possible ways OR $\frac{3}{216}$
b=4 and ac=9:
(a,b,c)=(3,6,3) OR 1 possible way OR $\frac{1}{216}$
Therefore, the required probability is $\frac{1}{216}+\frac{3}{216}+\frac{1}{216}=\frac{5}{216}$
(d) recognizes that $b^{2}-4ac>0$ (or equivalent eg. $\frac{b^{2}}{4}>ac$)
maximum value of $b^{2}$ is 36 OR maximum value of $ac$ is 8
Note: The above (A1) is independent of the (M1).
$ac=1,2,3,4,5,6,8$
(e) (i) $ac=1(b^{2}>4)$
$b=3,4,5,6$ OR $1\times4$ (quadratics) OR 6-2 (quadratics)
there are four quadratic functions
(ii) $ac=2(b^{2}>8)$
$b=3,4,5,6$
Note: Award (A1) for referencing their result shown in part (e) (i).
EITHER
$(a,b,c)=(1,3,2),(1,4,2),(1,5,2),(1,6,2),(2,3,1),(2,4,1),(2,5,1),(2,6,1)$
OR
2 \times 4 (quadratics)
THEN
there are eight quadratic functions
(f) METHOD 1
varies $ac (ac \neq 1,2)$ and determines possible values of $b$ such that $\Delta > 0$
correctly determines one of the following five cases
correctly determines a further two of the following five cases
correctly determines a further two cases
case 1: $ac = 3 (b^{2} > 12 \Rightarrow b = 4,5,6)$
$(a,b,c) = (1,4,3), (1,5,3), (1,6,3), (3,4,1), (3,5,1), (3,6,1)$ OR
6 possible ways OR
$\frac{6}{216}$
case 2: $ac = 4 (b^{2} > 16 \Rightarrow b = 5,6)$
$(a,b,c) = (1,5,4), (1,6,4), (2,5,2), (2,6,2), (4,5,1), (4,6,1)$ OR
6 possible ways OR
$\frac{6}{216}$
case 3: $ac = 5 (b^{2} > 20 \Rightarrow b = 5,6) $
$(a,b,c) = (1,5,5), (1,6,5), (5,5,1), (5,6,1)$ OR 4 possible ways OR
$\frac{4}{216}$
case 4: $ac = 6 (b^{2} > 24 \Rightarrow b = 5,6)$
$(a,b,c) = (1,5,6), (2,5,3), (3,5,2), (6,5,1), (1,6,6), (2,6,3), (3,6,2), (6,6,1)$ OR
8 possible ways OR $\frac{8}{216}$
case 5: $ac = 8 (b^{2} > 32 \Rightarrow b = 6)$
$(a,b,c) = (2,6,4), (4,6,2)$ OR 2 possible ways OR
$\frac{2}{216}$
adds their probabilities
$p = \frac{4}{216} + \frac{8}{216} + \frac{6}{216} + \frac{6}{216} + \frac{4}{216} + \frac{8}{216} + \frac{2}{216} $
$= (0.0185… + 0.0370… + 0.0277… + 0.0277… + 0.0185… + 0.0370… + 0.0092…)$
$= \frac{38}{216} = \frac{19}{108} = 0.176 $
METHOD 2
varies $b^{2}(+1,4)$ OR $b(\pm1,2)$ and determines possible values of $ac$ such that $\Delta>0$
correctly determines one of the following four cases
correctly determines another case from the following four cases
correctly determines the remaining two cases
case 1: $b^{2}=9(b=3)(ac=1,2)$
$(a,b,c)=(1,3,1),(1,3,2),(2,3,1)$ OR 3 possible ways OR $\frac{3}{216}$
case 2: $b^{2}=16(b=4)(ac=1,2,3)$
$(a,b,c)=(1,4,1),(1,4,2),(2,4,1),(1,4,3),(3,4,1)$ OR 5 possible ways OR $\frac{5}{216}$
case 3: $b^{2}=25(b=5)(ac=1,2,3,4,5,6)$
$(a,b,c)=(1,5,1),(1,5,2),(2,5,1),(1,5,3),(3,5,1),(1,5,4),(2,5,2),$
$(4,5,1),(1,5,5),(5,5,1),(1,5,6),(2,5,3),(3,5,2),(6,5,1)$
OR 14 possible ways OR $\frac{14}{216}$
case 4: $b^{2} = 36 (b = 6) (ac = 1,2,3,4,5,6,8)$
$(a,b,c) = (1,6,1), (1,6,2), (2,6,1), (1,6,3), (3,6,1), (1,6,4), (2,6,2), (4,6,1)$
$(1,6,5), (5,6,1), (1,6,6), (2,6,3), (3,6,2), (6,6,1), (2,6,4), (4,6,2)$
OR 16 possible ways OR $\frac{16}{216}$
adds their probabilities
$p = \frac{3}{216} + \frac{5}{216} + \frac{14}{216} + \frac{16}{216}$
$= (0.013889… + 0.023148… + 0.064815… + 0.074074…)$
$= \frac{38}{216} = \frac{19}{108} = 0.176$
(g) recognizes that $4Z^2-4>0 (Z^2>1)$
probability of two x-intercepts is
EITHER
$P(|Z|>1)$
OR
$P(Z<-1)$ or $P(Z>1)$ (can be shown on a labelled diagram)
$= 0.158655… + 0.158655…$
OR
$1-P(-1 \le Z \le 1)$ (can be shown on a labelled diagram)
$= 1 – 0.682689…$
THEN
$= 0.317310…$
$= 0.317$
(h) attempts to solve $X_{1} > 0.5$ for $Z$
$-1.25 < Z \leq -1$
attempts to calculate their $P(X_{1}, X_{2} \text{ both } > 0.5)$
$P(-1.25 < Z \leq -1) = 0.053005…$
attempts to calculate their $P(X_{1}, X_{2} \text{ both } > 0.5 \text{ x-intercepts}) $
$\frac{0.053005…}{0.317310…}$
$= 0.167$
Question 1
Topic – AHL 4.12
The purpose of this question is to help a company decide whether or not they should use a new technique to make a component.A factory produces components for a tractor. They have designed a new technique to produce one of their components that they hope will increase its useful lifespan.
They test 120 components made with the new technique and 240 with the technique they currently use. At the end of 250 hours of use, they check the components, and record whether they have no cracks, minor cracks or major cracks.
The data from the trial are given in the table.
In total 141 components had no cracks.
(a) (i) Show that the value of a is 53.
(ii) Find the value of b.
One of the components from the trial is selected at random.
(b) Given that this component had minor cracks find the probability that it was produced by the new technique.
(c) A χ2 test for independence is performed at the 5% significance level to determine whether a component having no cracks, minor cracks or major cracks is independent of the production technique used.
(i) State the null and alternative hypotheses.
(ii) Find the p-value.
(iii) State the conclusion of the test in context, justifying your answer.
(d) For the components in the trial that were made with the current technique, show that the proportion which developed cracks is$ \frac{19}{30}$
As an alternative measure, the researchers decide to let p be the probability that a component, made with the new technique, develops cracks. They then test the following hypotheses:
$H_0: p = \frac{19}{30}$
$H_1: p < \frac{19}{30}$
In a randomly selected sample of 120 components made with the new technique let X be the number which developed cracks. The researchers assume that, under the null hypothesis,
$X \sim B(120, \frac{19}{30})$
(e) State one additional assumption that the researchers are making in choosing this distribution.
(f) Use appropriate data from the trial to perform the test proposed by the researchers, at the 5% significance level. State the conclusion of the test, justifying your answer.
(g) In comparison with the test in part (c), state one mathematical reason why
(i) the test in part (f) might be preferred.
(ii) the test in part (f) might not be preferred.
For these components, the researchers also consider the mean time taken until cracks develop. It is hoped that using the new technique will increase this value. A second trial is carried out and the times, in hours, taken for cracks to appear is recorded.
The mean time taken for cracks to appear ($\bar{t}$) and the value of $s_{n-1}$ for each technique are given in the following table.
(h) Perform an appropriate test at the 5% significance level to determine whether the new technique increases the mean time taken for cracks to appear.
The company decides to go ahead with the new technique and publishes the following statement: “Statistical tests show the new technique will significantly increase the time before components crack and need to be replaced.”
(i) Comment on this statement.
▶️Answer/Explanation
Solution: –
(a) (i) 141-88 = 53
(ii) (120-53-54) = 13
(b) Restricting the size of the sample space to 150 (54+96)
$= 0.36 \left ( \frac{54}{150} , \frac{9}{25}\right ) $
(c) (i) H$_0$: The development of cracks and the technique used are independent
H$_1$: The development of cracks and the technique used are not independent
(ii) ($p$-value =) 0.0170 (0.0169864…)
(iii) 0.0170 < 0.05
hence there is sufficient evidence to reject the null hypothesis that the development of cracks and the technique used are independent.
(d) $\frac{96+56}{240} = \frac{152}{240} = \frac{19}{30}$
(e) $EITHER$
the probability of each component developing cracks is independent of
all the other components in the sample.
$OR$
the development of cracks can be partitioned into two clear groups
(f) $67 \text{seen}$
$EITHER$
attempt to find a probability ≤ 67 (condone strict inequality for (M1))
(P(X≤67)=) 0.0549 (0.0549093…)
0.0549 > 0.05
$OR$
attempt to find the critical region
critical region is X ≤ 66
66 < 67 or ’67 is not in the critical region’
$THEN$
$EITHER$
do not reject the null hypothesis (as there is insufficient evidence that
the new technique reduces the number of cracks).
$OR$
do not accept the alternative hypothesis (as there is insufficient evidence
that the new technique reduces the number of cracks).
(g) (i) the test for a proportion is directional and so considers whether the new
treatment reduces the number of components developing cracks.
(ii) EITHER
there could be variation in the value of p chosen for the null hypothesis /
the value of p from the sample might not be a representative of
the current technique
OR
the test in (f) does not treat minor and major cracks as different attributes /
the test in (c) does treat minor and major cracks as different attributes
OR
the test in (f) has to make an additional assumption (for example ‘independence’)
(h) EITHER
let $\mu_{1}$ be the mean length of time before cracks appear with the new technique
and $\mu_{2}$ be the mean length with the current technique
H$_0$: $\mu_{1}=\mu_{2}$
H$_1$: $\mu_{1}>\mu_{2}$
OR
H$_0$: the POPULATION mean length of time before cracks appear is the same
for both groups
H$_1$: the new technique increases the POPULATION mean length of time before cracks appear.
OR
H$_0$: the mean length of time before cracks appear in ALL components
made with the new technique is the same as for ALL components made
with the current technique.
H$_1$: the mean length of time before cracks appear in ALL components
made with the new technique is greater than the mean for ALL components
made with the current technique.
THEN
recognition of the need to use of a two-sample test
p-value = 0.0162 (0.0162328…)
0.0162 < 0.05
reject the null hypothesis (OR accept the alternative hypothesis)
(there is sufficient evidence to that the new technique increases the mean
length of time before the cracks appear)
(i) EITHER
(though statistically significant) the new technique only seems to increase the time before
cracks appear by 1 hour out of 250, so it is not a significant increase
(i.e. the effect size is small)
OR
the minimum time (not mean time) before cracks appear should be considered
given the context / An appropriate confidence interval should be considered,
and not simply the mean.