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IB Mathematics AHL 4.13 Use of Bayes’ theorem for a maximum of three events AA HL Paper 3 | Exam Style Question

IB Mathematics AHL 4.13 Use of Bayes’ theorem for a maximum of three events AA HL Paper 3

Question

This question asks you to find the probability of graphs of randomly generated quadratic functions having a specified number of x-intercepts.

In parts (a) – (f), consider quadratic functions, $f(x) = ax^2 + bx + c$, whose coefficients, $a$, $b$ and $c$, are randomly generated in turn by rolling an unbiased six-sided die three times and reading off the value shown on the uppermost face of the die.

For example, rolling a 2, 3 and 5 in turn generates the quadratic function $f(x) = 2x^2 + 3x + 5$.

(a) Explain why there are 216 possible quadratic functions that can be generated using this method.

(b) The set of coefficients, $a = 1$, $b = 4$ and $c = 4$, is randomly generated to form the quadratic function $f(x) = x^2 + 4x + 4$.

Verify that this graph of $f$ has only one x-intercept.

(c) By considering the discriminant, or otherwise, show that the probability of the graph of such a randomly generated quadratic function having only one x-intercept is $\frac{5}{216}$.

Now consider randomly generated quadratic functions whose corresponding graphs have two distinct x-intercepts.

(d) By considering the discriminant, determine the set of possible values of $ac$.

(e) (i) For the case where $ac = 1$, show that there are four quadratic functions whose corresponding graphs have two distinct x-intercepts.

(ii) For the case where $ac = 2$, show that there are eight quadratic functions whose corresponding graphs have two distinct x-intercepts.

Let $p$ be the probability of the graph of such a randomly generated quadratic function having two distinct x-intercepts.

(f) Using the approach started in part (e), or otherwise, find the value of $p$.

In parts (g) and (h), consider a randomly generated quadratic function, $f(x) = x^2 + 2Zx + 1$, where the continuous random variable $Z \sim N(0, 1)$.

(g) Find the probability that the graph of $f$ has two x-intercepts.

The continuous random variables, $X_1$ and $X_2$, represent the x-intercepts of the graph of $f$, where $X_1 = -Z – \sqrt{Z^2 – 1}$ and $X_2 = -Z + \sqrt{Z^2 – 1}$.

(h) Given that the graph of $f$ has two x-intercepts, $X_1$ and $X_2$, find the probability that both $X_1$ and $X_2$ are greater than 0.5.

▶️Answer/Explanation

Detailed solution

(a) The quadratic function is of the form \( f(x) = ax^2 + bx + c \), where each coefficient \( a \), \( b \), and \( c \) is determined by rolling a six-sided die. A standard six-sided die has faces numbered 1 through 6, so each coefficient can take any integer value from 1 to 6. Since the rolls are independent for \( a \), \( b \), and \( c \):

Number of choices for \( a \): 6
Number of choices for \( b \): 6
Number of choices for \( c \): 6

The total number of possible combinations is the product of these choices:

\[ 6 \times 6 \times 6 = 6^3 = 216 \]

Thus, there are 216 possible quadratic functions that can be generated.

(b) To find the x-intercepts of \( f(x) = x^2 + 4x + 4 \), set the function equal to zero and solve for \( x \):

\[ x^2 + 4x + 4 = 0 \]

Notice that this is a perfect square trinomial:

\[ x^2 + 4x + 4 = (x + 2)^2 \]

So the equation becomes:

\[ (x + 2)^2 = 0 \]

Taking the square root of both sides:

\[ x + 2 = 0 \]
\[ x = -2 \]

The equation has exactly one solution, \( x = -2 \), because the quadratic is a perfect square and touches the x-axis at a single point (the vertex). Alternatively, we can check the discriminant (\( \Delta = b^2 – 4ac \)):

– \( a = 1 \), \( b = 4 \), \( c = 4 \)
– \( \Delta = 4^2 – 4 \cdot 1 \cdot 4 = 16 – 16 = 0 \)

A discriminant of zero confirms that there is exactly one real root. Thus, \( f(x) = x^2 + 4x + 4 \) has only one x-intercept.

(c) The number of x-intercepts depends on the discriminant \( \Delta = b^2 – 4ac \). For a quadratic to have exactly one x-intercept, \( \Delta = 0 \), meaning:

\[ b^2 – 4ac = 0 \]
OR \[ b^2 = 4ac \]

Since \( a \), \( b \), and \( c \) are integers from 1 to 6, we need to find all triples \( (a, b, c) \) that satisfy this equation. Also, \( b^2 \) is a perfect square (since \( b \) is an integer), and \( 4ac \) must be positive and a perfect square. Possible values of \( b \) are 1 to 6, so \( b^2 \) can be 1, 4, 9, 16, 25, or 36. We need \( 4ac = b^2 \), and since \( a \) and \( c \) are between 1 and 6, \( ac \) ranges from 1 to 36, and \( 4ac \) from 4 to 144. Let’s find the valid cases:

\( b = 1 \), \( b^2 = 1 \):
\[ 4ac = 1 \]
\[ ac = \frac{1}{4} \]
Not possible since \( ac \) must be an integer and at least 1.

\( b = 2 \), \( b^2 = 4 \):
\[ 4ac = 4 \]
\[ ac = 1 \]
Pairs: \( (a, c) = (1, 1) \)
Number of triples: 1

\( b = 3 \), \( b^2 = 9 \):
\[ 4ac = 9 \]
\[ ac = \frac{9}{4} \]
Not an integer, so no solutions.

\( b = 4 \), \( b^2 = 16 \):
\[ 4ac = 16 \]
\[ ac = 4 \]
Pairs: \( (1, 4) \), \( (2, 2) \), \( (4, 1) \)
Number of triples: 3

\( b = 5 \), \( b^2 = 25 \):
\[ 4ac = 25 \]
\[ ac = \frac{25}{4} \]
Not an integer, so no solutions.

\( b = 6 \), \( b^2 = 36 \):
\[ 4ac = 36 \]
\[ ac = 9 \]
Pairs: \( (3, 3) \)
Number of triples: 1

Total number of triples: \( 1 + 3 + 1 = 5 \). The triples are:

1. \( (1, 2, 1) \): \( x^2 + 2x + 1 = (x + 1)^2 \)
2. \( (1, 4, 4) \): \( x^2 + 4x + 4 = (x + 2)^2 \)
3. \( (2, 4, 2) \): \( 2x^2 + 4x + 2 = 2(x + 1)^2 \)
4. \( (4, 4, 1) \): \( 4x^2 + 4x + 1 = (2x + 1)^2 \)
5. \( (3, 6, 3) \): \( 3x^2 + 6x + 3 = 3(x + 1)^2 \)

Each has \( \Delta = 0 \), confirming one x-intercept. Total possible functions = 216, so:

\[ \text{Probability} = \frac{5}{216} \]

(d) For two distinct x-intercepts, \( \Delta > 0 \):

\[ b^2 – 4ac > 0 \]
OR \[ b^2 > 4ac \]
OR \[ 4ac < b^2 \]

Since \( b \) ranges from 1 to 6, \( b^2 \) is 1, 4, 9, 16, 25, 36, and \( a \) and \( c \) from 1 to 6, so \( ac \) ranges from 1 to 36, and \( 4ac \) from 4 to 144. We need \( 4ac < b^2 \), and \( ac \) must be an integer. Possible \( ac \) values depend on \( b \), but overall, \( 4ac < 36 \) (since \( b^2 \leq 36 \)):

\[ 4ac < 36 \]
\[ ac < 9 \]
\[ ac \leq 8 \]

Possible \( ac \): 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8 (since \( a, c \geq 1 \), \( ac = 7 \) is possible with \( (1, 7) \) etc., but we test up to 8 based on pairs).

(e) (i) For  \( ac = 1 \), so \( (a, c) = (1, 1) \). \( b \) from 1 to 6:

\( \Delta = b^2 – 4 \cdot 1 \cdot 1 = b^2 – 4 \)
\( b = 1 \): \( 1 – 4 < 0 \)
\( b = 2 \): \( 4 – 4 = 0 \)
\( b = 3 \): \( 9 – 4 = 5 > 0 \)
\( b = 4 \): \( 16 – 4 = 12 > 0 \)
\( b = 5 \): \( 25 – 4 = 21 > 0 \)
\( b = 6 \): \( 36 – 4 = 32 > 0 \)

\( b = 3, 4, 5, 6 \) work. Number of functions = 4.

(e) (ii) For \( ac = 2 \): \( (1, 2) \), \( (2, 1) \). For each:

\( a = 1, c = 2 \): \( \Delta = b^2 – 4 \cdot 1 \cdot 2 = b^2 – 8 \)
\( b = 1, 2 \): \( < 0 \)
\( b = 3 \): \( 9 – 8 = 1 > 0 \)
\( b = 4 \): \( 16 – 8 = 8 > 0 \)
 \( b = 5, 6 \): \( > 0 \)
4 cases
\( a = 2, c = 1 \): Same \( \Delta \), 4 cases

Total = 8.

(f) the probability of two distinct x-intercepts.

Count all cases for \( ac = 1 \) to 8, \( \Delta > 0 \):

\( ac = 1 \): 4
\( ac = 2 \): 8
\( ac = 3 \): \( (1, 3) \), \( (3, 1) \), \( b = 4, 5, 6 \) (3 each), 6
\( ac = 4 \): \( (1, 4) \), \( (2, 2) \), \( (4, 1) \), \( b = 5, 6 \) (2 each), 6
\( ac = 5 \): \( (1, 5) \), \( (5, 1) \), \( b = 5, 6 \) (2 each), 4
\( ac = 6 \): \( (1, 6) \), \( (2, 3) \), \( (3, 2) \), \( (6, 1) \), \( b = 5, 6 \) (except \( 2, 3 \) needs \( b \geq 5 \)), 8
\( ac = 8 \): \( (2, 4) \), \( (4, 2) \), \( b = 6 \), 2

Total = 38

Therefore, probability \( p = \frac{38}{216} = \frac{19}{108} \).

(g) Probability that \( f(x) = x^2 + 2Zx + 1 \) has two x-intercepts, \( Z \sim N(0, 1) \).

\( \Delta = (2Z)^2 – 4 \cdot 1 \cdot 1 = 4Z^2 – 4 \):

\[ 4Z^2 – 4 > 0 \]
\[ Z^2 > 1 \]
\[ |Z| > 1 \]

\( P(|Z| > 1) = 2 \cdot P(Z > 1) = 2 \cdot (1 – \Phi(1)) \approx 2 \cdot (0.1587 )= 0.3174 \).

(h) Probability that \( X_1 > 0.5 \) and \( X_2 > 0.5 \).

Roots: \( X_1 = -Z – \sqrt{Z^2 – 1} \), \( X_2 = -Z + \sqrt{Z^2 – 1} \). Given two roots, \( Z^2 > 1 \). \( X_2 > X_1 \), so if \( X_1 > 0.5 \), check \( X_2 \):

\[ -Z – \sqrt{Z^2 – 1} > 0.5 \]
\[ -\sqrt{Z^2 – 1} > 0.5 + Z \]

For \( Z < -1 \), both roots positive when \( Z < -1.5 \). Compute \( P(Z < -1.5 | |Z| > 1) = \frac{\Phi(-1.5)}{2 \cdot (1 – \Phi(1))} \approx 0.4338 \).

————Markscheme—————–

Solution: –

(a) \(6^{3}\) OR \(6\times6\times6\)

= 216

(b) EITHER

attempts to find \(\Delta\)

\[\Delta \left [ =\left ( 4^{2}-4(1)(4) \right ) \right ]=0\]

OR

attempts to solve \(x^{2} + 4x + 4 = 0\)

\((x+2)^{2} = 0 \Rightarrow x = -2\)

OR

attempts to express \(x^{2} + 4x + 4 = 0\) as a perfect square

\((x+2)^{2} = 0\) is a perfect square

OR

a graph of \(y = x^{2} + 4x + 4\) with the vertex touching the x-axis at \(x = -2\)

THEN

graph of \(f\) has only one x-intercept

(c) recognizes that $b^{2}-4ac=0$ (or equivalent)

EITHER

attempts to use $\frac{b^{2}}{ac}=4 \left(\frac{b^{2}}{4}=ac\right)$

determines one value of $b$ from $b=2,4$ or 6 only OR one value of $ac$ from $ac=1,4$ or 9 only

OR

attempts to find a possible value of $b$

determines one value of $b$ from $b=2,4$ or 6 only

OR

recognizes that $b^{2}$ must be a multiple of 4 OR $b$ must be a multiple of 2

determines one value of $b$ from $b=2,4$ or 6 only

OR

attempts to find a possible value of $ac$

determines one value of $ac$ from $ac=1,4$ or 9 only

THEN

b=2 and ac=1:

(a,b,c)=(1,2,1) OR 1 possible way  OR $\frac{1}{216}$

b=4 and ac=4:

(a,b,c)=(1,4,4),(4,4,1),(2,4,2) OR 3 possible ways OR $\frac{3}{216}$

b=4 and ac=9:

(a,b,c)=(3,6,3) OR 1 possible way OR $\frac{1}{216}$

Therefore, the required probability  is $\frac{1}{216}+\frac{3}{216}+\frac{1}{216}=\frac{5}{216}$

(d) recognizes that $b^{2}-4ac>0$ (or equivalent  eg. $\frac{b^{2}}{4}>ac$)

maximum value of $b^{2}$ is 36 OR maximum value of $ac$ is 8

Note: The above (A1) is independent of the (M1).

$ac=1,2,3,4,5,6,8$

(e) (i) $ac=1(b^{2}>4)$

$b=3,4,5,6$ OR $1\times4$ (quadratics) OR 6-2 (quadratics)
there are four quadratic functions

(ii) $ac=2(b^{2}>8)$

$b=3,4,5,6$

Note: Award (A1) for referencing their result shown in part (e) (i).

EITHER

$(a,b,c)=(1,3,2),(1,4,2),(1,5,2),(1,6,2),(2,3,1),(2,4,1),(2,5,1),(2,6,1)$

OR

2 \times 4 (quadratics)

THEN

there are eight quadratic functions

(f) METHOD 1

varies $ac (ac \neq 1,2)$ and determines possible values of $b$ such that $\Delta > 0$

correctly determines one of the following five cases 

correctly determines a further two of the following five cases

correctly  determines a further two cases 

case 1: $ac = 3 (b^{2} > 12 \Rightarrow b = 4,5,6)$

$(a,b,c) = (1,4,3), (1,5,3), (1,6,3), (3,4,1), (3,5,1), (3,6,1)$ OR
6 possible ways OR
$\frac{6}{216}$

case 2: $ac = 4 (b^{2} > 16 \Rightarrow b = 5,6)$

$(a,b,c) = (1,5,4), (1,6,4), (2,5,2), (2,6,2), (4,5,1), (4,6,1)$ OR
6 possible ways OR
$\frac{6}{216}$

case 3: $ac = 5 (b^{2} > 20 \Rightarrow b = 5,6) $

$(a,b,c) = (1,5,5), (1,6,5), (5,5,1), (5,6,1)$ OR 4 possible ways OR
$\frac{4}{216}$

case 4: $ac = 6 (b^{2} > 24 \Rightarrow b = 5,6)$

$(a,b,c) = (1,5,6), (2,5,3), (3,5,2), (6,5,1), (1,6,6), (2,6,3), (3,6,2), (6,6,1)$ OR
8 possible ways OR $\frac{8}{216}$

case 5: $ac = 8 (b^{2} > 32 \Rightarrow b = 6)$

$(a,b,c) = (2,6,4), (4,6,2)$ OR 2 possible ways OR
$\frac{2}{216}$

adds their probabilities

$p = \frac{4}{216} + \frac{8}{216} + \frac{6}{216} + \frac{6}{216} + \frac{4}{216} + \frac{8}{216} + \frac{2}{216} $

$= (0.0185… + 0.0370… + 0.0277… + 0.0277… + 0.0185… + 0.0370… + 0.0092…)$

$= \frac{38}{216} = \frac{19}{108} = 0.176 $

METHOD 2

varies $b^{2}(+1,4)$ OR $b(\pm1,2)$ and determines possible values of $ac$ such that $\Delta>0$

correctly determines one of the following four cases

correctly determines another case from the following four cases

correctly determines the remaining two cases

case 1: $b^{2}=9(b=3)(ac=1,2)$

$(a,b,c)=(1,3,1),(1,3,2),(2,3,1)$ OR 3 possible ways OR $\frac{3}{216}$

case 2: $b^{2}=16(b=4)(ac=1,2,3)$

$(a,b,c)=(1,4,1),(1,4,2),(2,4,1),(1,4,3),(3,4,1)$ OR 5 possible ways OR $\frac{5}{216}$

case 3: $b^{2}=25(b=5)(ac=1,2,3,4,5,6)$

$(a,b,c)=(1,5,1),(1,5,2),(2,5,1),(1,5,3),(3,5,1),(1,5,4),(2,5,2),$
$(4,5,1),(1,5,5),(5,5,1),(1,5,6),(2,5,3),(3,5,2),(6,5,1)$

OR 14 possible ways OR $\frac{14}{216}$

case 4: $b^{2} = 36 (b = 6) (ac = 1,2,3,4,5,6,8)$

$(a,b,c) = (1,6,1), (1,6,2), (2,6,1), (1,6,3), (3,6,1), (1,6,4), (2,6,2), (4,6,1)$
$(1,6,5), (5,6,1), (1,6,6), (2,6,3), (3,6,2), (6,6,1), (2,6,4), (4,6,2)$

OR 16 possible ways OR $\frac{16}{216}$

adds their probabilities

$p = \frac{3}{216} + \frac{5}{216} + \frac{14}{216} + \frac{16}{216}$

$= (0.013889… + 0.023148… + 0.064815… + 0.074074…)$

$= \frac{38}{216} = \frac{19}{108} = 0.176$

(g) recognizes that $4Z^2-4>0 (Z^2>1)$

probability of two x-intercepts is

EITHER

$P(|Z|>1)$

OR

$P(Z<-1)$ or $P(Z>1)$ (can be shown on a labelled diagram)
$= 0.158655… + 0.158655…$

OR

$1-P(-1 \le Z \le 1)$ (can be shown on a labelled diagram)
$= 1 – 0.682689…$

THEN

$= 0.317310…$

$= 0.317$

(h) attempts to solve $X_{1} > 0.5$ for $Z$

$-1.25 < Z \leq -1$

attempts to calculate their $P(X_{1}, X_{2} \text{ both } > 0.5)$

$P(-1.25 < Z \leq -1) = 0.053005…$

attempts to calculate their $P(X_{1}, X_{2} \text{ both } > 0.5 \text{ x-intercepts}) $

$\frac{0.053005…}{0.317310…}$

$= 0.167$

Question

Natasha lives in Chicago and has relatives in Nashville and St. Louis.

Each time she visits her relatives, she either flies or drives.

When travelling to Nashville, the probability that she drives is \(\frac{4}{5}\), and when travelling to St. Louis, the probability that she flies is \(\frac{1}{3}\).

Given that the probability that she drives when visiting her relatives is \(\frac{13}{18}\), find the probability that for a particular trip,

a.she travels to Nashville;[3]

b.she is on her way to Nashville, given that she is flying.[3]

▶️Answer/Explanation

Markscheme

attempt to set up the problem using a tree diagram and/or an equation, with the unknown \(x\)     M1

\(\frac{4}{5}x + \frac{2}{3}(1 – x) = \frac{{13}}{{18}}\)     A1

\(\frac{{4x}}{5} – \frac{{2x}}{3} = \frac{{13}}{{18}} – \frac{2}{3}\)

\(\frac{{2x}}{{15}} = \frac{1}{{18}}\)

\(x = \frac{5}{{12}}\)     A1

[3 marks]

a.

attempt to set up the problem using conditional probability     M1

EITHER

\(\frac{{\frac{5}{{12}} \times \frac{1}{5}}}{{1 – \frac{{13}}{{18}}}}\)     A1

OR

\(\frac{{\frac{5}{{12}} \times \frac{1}{5}}}{{\frac{1}{{12}} + \frac{7}{{36}}}}\)     A1

THEN

\( = \frac{3}{{10}}\)     A1

[3 marks]

Total [6 marks]

b.

Examiners report

[N/A]

a.

[N/A]

b.
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