IB Mathematics SL 4.5 Concepts of trial, outcome AA SL Paper 1- Exam Style Questions- New Syllabus
A species of bird can nest in two seasons: Spring and Summer. The probability of nesting in Spring is \( k \). The probability of nesting in Summer is \( \frac{k}{2} \). This is shown in the following tree diagram.
Part (a):
Complete the tree diagram to show the probabilities of not nesting in each season. Write your answers in terms of \( k \). [2]
Part (b):
It is known that the probability of not nesting in Spring and not nesting in Summer is \( \frac{5}{9} \).
(i) Show that \( 9k^2 – 27k + 8 = 0 \). [3]
(ii) Both \( k = \frac{1}{3} \) and \( k = \frac{8}{3} \) satisfy \( 9k^2 – 27k + 8 = 0 \). State why \( k = \frac{1}{3} \) is the only valid solution. [1]
▶️ Answer/Explanation
Part (a)
Complete the tree diagram for probabilities of not nesting.
For Spring: Probability of nesting = \( k \), so probability of not nesting = \( 1 – k \).
For Summer: Probability of nesting = \( \frac{k}{2} \), so probability of not nesting = \( 1 – \frac{k}{2} \).
Answer: Spring: \( 1 – k \), Summer: \( 1 – \frac{k}{2} \)
Part (b)
(i) Show that \( 9k^2 – 27k + 8 = 0 \).
Probability of not nesting in Spring and not nesting in Summer = \( \frac{5}{9} \).
Since events are independent: \( (1 – k) \cdot \left(1 – \frac{k}{2}\right) = \frac{5}{9} \).
Expand: \[ 1 – k – \frac{k}{2} + \frac{k^2}{2} = \frac{5}{9} \]
\[ 1 – \frac{3k}{2} + \frac{k^2}{2} = \frac{5}{9} \]
Multiply by 18: \[ 18 – 27k + 9k^2 = 10 \]
\[ 9k^2 – 27k + 18 – 10 = 0 \]
\[ 9k^2 – 27k + 8 = 0 \]
(ii) State why \( k = \frac{1}{3} \) is the only valid solution.
Solve: \( 9k^2 – 27k + 8 = 0 \).
Factorize: \[ (3k – 1)(3k – 8) = 0 \]
\[ k = \frac{1}{3}, \frac{8}{3} \]
Since \( k \) is a probability, \( 0 \leq k \leq 1 \). Also, Summer probability \( \frac{k}{2} \leq 1 \), so \( k \leq 2 \).
\[ k = \frac{8}{3} > 1 \], which is invalid.
Answer: (i) \( 9k^2 – 27k + 8 = 0 \) (shown), (ii) \( k = \frac{1}{3} \) is valid as \( \frac{8}{3} > 1 \).